Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado2.6M-2.8M 100.0%
<2.6M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$18,641 Vol.
$18,641 Vol.
29 mar 2026
<2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
Yes
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
3.2M-3.4M
No
>3.4M
No
2.6M-2.8M 100.0%
<2.6M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$18,641 Vol.
$18,641 Vol.
29 mar 2026
<2.6M
$1,791 Vol.
No
2.6M-2.8M
$619 Vol.
Yes
2.8M-3.0M
$12,939 Vol.
No
3.0M-3.2M
$613 Vol.
No
3.2M-3.4M
$1,663 Vol.
No
>3.4M
$1,016 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volumen
$18,641Fecha de finalización
29 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volumen
$18,641Fecha de finalización
29 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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