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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Market icon

¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 13%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia 3.5%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,521,090 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 13%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia 3.5%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,521,090 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$33,020 Vol.

63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$23,045 Vol.

13%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$18,218 Vol.

3%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$563,272 Vol.

3%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$1,015,701 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$356,446 Vol.

2%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$217,325 Vol.

2%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$359,078 Vol.

2%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$21,675 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$70,933 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$19,708 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$74,810 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$88,736 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$45,946 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$23,331 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$71,617 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$74,531 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$45,999 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$28,607 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$42,765 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$33,513 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$80,693 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$63,898 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$120,423 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$27,798 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027, reflecting polls showing his Fidesz party trailing challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent massive anti-government protests, allegations of voter intimidation via cash and drugs, and Orbán's EU policy blockades have eroded support, positioning him as an underdog after 16 years in office. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second amid U.S. demands for his removal to advance negotiations, fueled by economic collapse, blackouts, and protests, though Havana rejects concessions. Lower odds for leaders like Colombia's Petro, UK's Starmer, and Israel's Netanyahu stem from less imminent catalysts like scandals or coalition strains, with the Hungary vote as the key near-term event.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,521,090
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027, reflecting polls showing his Fidesz party trailing challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent massive anti-government protests, allegations of voter intimidation via cash and drugs, and Orbán's EU policy blockades have eroded support, positioning him as an underdog after 16 years in office. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second amid U.S. demands for his removal to advance negotiations, fueled by economic collapse, blackouts, and protests, though Havana rejects concessions. Lower odds for leaders like Colombia's Petro, UK's Starmer, and Israel's Netanyahu stem from less imminent catalysts like scandals or coalition strains, with the Hungary vote as the key near-term event.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,521,090
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 63%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 63¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $3.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 63%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 13%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.