A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La acción militar contra Irán termina con...?
¿La acción militar contra Irán termina con...?
$31,804,712 Vol.
30 abr 2026
1 de abril
No
2 de abril
No
3 de abril
No
4 de abril
No
5 de abril
No
6 de abril
No
7 de abril
No
8 de abril
No
9 de abril
Sí
10 de abril
Sí
11 de abril
Sí
12 de abril
Sí
13 de abril
Sí
14 de abril
Sí
15 de abril
Sí
16 de abril
Sí
17 de abril
Sí
18 de abril
Sí
19 de abril
Sí
20 de abril
Sí
21 de abril
Sí
22 de abril
Sí
23 de abril
Sí
24 de abril
Sí
25 de abril
Sí
26 de abril
Sí
27 de abril
Sí
28 de abril
Sí
29 de abril
Sí
30 de abril
Sí
$31,804,712 Vol.
1 de abril
$10,254 Vol.
No
2 de abril
$11,401 Vol.
No
3 de abril
$8,242 Vol.
No
4 de abril
$5,242 Vol.
No
5 de abril
$3,932 Vol.
No
6 de abril
$13,964 Vol.
No
7 de abril
$3,627 Vol.
No
8 de abril
$13,689 Vol.
No
9 de abril
$237,471 Vol.
Sí
10 de abril
$16,446 Vol.
Sí
11 de abril
$32,861 Vol.
Sí
12 de abril
$81,597 Vol.
Sí
13 de abril
$93,184 Vol.
Sí
14 de abril
$127,016 Vol.
Sí
15 de abril
$101,486 Vol.
Sí
16 de abril
$116,607 Vol.
Sí
17 de abril
$28,778,655 Vol.
Sí
18 de abril
$134,016 Vol.
Sí
19 de abril
$64,443 Vol.
Sí
20 de abril
$78,125 Vol.
Sí
21 de abril
$80,720 Vol.
Sí
22 de abril
$145,549 Vol.
Sí
23 de abril
$99,012 Vol.
Sí
24 de abril
$85,329 Vol.
Sí
25 de abril
$104,695 Vol.
Sí
26 de abril
$97,519 Vol.
Sí
27 de abril
$97,649 Vol.
Sí
28 de abril
$139,058 Vol.
Sí
29 de abril
$311,523 Vol.
Sí
30 de abril
$711,400 Vol.
Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$31,804,712Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$31,804,712Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes