Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 5th congressional district in June after winning a crowded primary with key endorsements from retiring Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, plus substantial outside spending. The district’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a 33-point margin for the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, underpins trader consensus around his general election prospects against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. Early voting begins later this month ahead of the November 3 contest. While the seat’s partisan composition creates a steep barrier for the Republican candidate, late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout or significant last-minute shifts in voter priorities could still influence the final result.