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Geopolítica·Trump

¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?

Dec 18, 2025

Dec 31

Dec 18, 2025

Dec 31

0 30%

1-100 19.4%

101-1k 9.8%

25k-100k 9.3%

Polymarket

$118,976 Vol.

0 30%

1-100 19.4%

101-1k 9.8%

25k-100k 9.3%

Polymarket

$118,976 Vol.

0

$23,864 Vol.

30%

1-100

$9,870 Vol.

19%

101-1k

$4,777 Vol.

10%

1k-2.5k

$7,225 Vol.

8%

2.5k-5k

$4,216 Vol.

9%

5k-10k

$4,525 Vol.

7%

10k-25k

$51,594 Vol.

7%

25k-100k

$4,096 Vol.

9%

>100k

$8,807 Vol.

5%

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5%, reflecting stalled implementation of the executive order program despite 70,000 estimated applicants and early 2025 claims of $1.3 billion in commitments. No verified issuances have occurred as of late March, hampered by rigorous DHS and USCIS background checks, a $1 million gift requirement post-$15,000 processing fee, and preference for cheaper EB-5 investor visas among wealthy foreigners. A federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenges the program's legality for bypassing merit-based EB-1/EB-2 pathways, with government response due soon. Low-volume outcomes like 1-100 (19.4%) differentiate on potential trickle issuances if courts clear hurdles, while higher bins lag absent first-card announcements or lawsuit dismissal before year-end.

Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5%, reflecting stalled implementation of the executive order program despite 70,000 estimated applicants and early 2025 claims of $1.3 billion in commitments. No verified issuances have occurred as of late March, hampered by rigorous DHS and USCIS background checks, a $1 million gift requirement post-$15,000 processing fee, and preference for cheaper EB-5 investor visas among wealthy foreigners. A federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenges the program's legality for bypassing merit-based EB-1/EB-2 pathways, with government response due soon. Low-volume outcomes like 1-100 (19.4%) differentiate on potential trickle issuances if courts clear hurdles, while higher bins lag absent first-card announcements or lawsuit dismissal before year-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5%, reflecting stalled implementation of the executive order program despite 70,000 estimated applicants and early 2025 claims of $1.3 billion in commitments. No verified issuances have occurred as of late March, hampered by rigorous DHS and USCIS background checks, a $1 million gift requirement post-$15,000 processing fee, and preference for cheaper EB-5 investor visas among wealthy foreigners. A federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenges the program's legality for bypassing merit-based EB-1/EB-2 pathways, with government response due soon. Low-volume outcomes like 1-100 (19.4%) differentiate on potential trickle issuances if courts clear hurdles, while higher bins lag absent first-card announcements or lawsuit dismissal before year-end.

Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5%, reflecting stalled implementation of the executive order program despite 70,000 estimated applicants and early 2025 claims of $1.3 billion in commitments. No verified issuances have occurred as of late March, hampered by rigorous DHS and USCIS background checks, a $1 million gift requirement post-$15,000 processing fee, and preference for cheaper EB-5 investor visas among wealthy foreigners. A federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenges the program's legality for bypassing merit-based EB-1/EB-2 pathways, with government response due soon. Low-volume outcomes like 1-100 (19.4%) differentiate on potential trickle issuances if courts clear hurdles, while higher bins lag absent first-card announcements or lawsuit dismissal before year-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0" con 30%, seguido de "1-100" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?" ha generado $119K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?" es "0" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1-100" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántas tarjetas doradas venderá Trump en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.