Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4 37.1%
5 29.6%
3 12.7%
6 12.7%
$6,285,479 Vol.
$6,285,479 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3
13%
4
37%
5
30%
6
13%
Título del ítem del grupo: 7
3%
8
2%
9
2%
10
1%
11
1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 37.1%
5 29.6%
3 12.7%
6 12.7%
$6,285,479 Vol.
$6,285,479 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3
$1,883,034 Vol.
13%
4
$1,139,959 Vol.
37%
5
$452,337 Vol.
30%
6
$625,862 Vol.
13%
Título del ítem del grupo: 7
$584,452 Vol.
3%
8
$498,818 Vol.
2%
9
$198,529 Vol.
2%
10
$370,740 Vol.
1%
11
$89,483 Vol.
1%
12
$59,336 Vol.
1%
13
$129,252 Vol.
<1%
14
$94,518 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,610 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volumen
$6,285,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,285,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes