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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

2 86%

3 8.9%

4 1.3%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$207,354 Vol.

2 86%

3 8.9%

4 1.3%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$207,354 Vol.

2

$36,518 Vol.

86%

3

$18,741 Vol.

9%

4

$16,352 Vol.

1%

5

$19,647 Vol.

1%

>5

$44,197 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirms two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during March 23–29: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. With the period ending March 29 and no further qualifying events reported as of latest updates, traders price an 85.5% implied probability on exactly two, reflecting global baseline seismicity rates of roughly 10–20 such quakes annually—averaging under 0.5 per week—and the low likelihood of a third in the final hours amid no unusual seismic swarms or aftershock sequences. Real-time USGS monitoring continues, with inherent uncertainty in fault dynamics potentially allowing rare late surges, though historical patterns favor stability.

USGS data confirms two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during March 23–29: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. With the period ending March 29 and no further qualifying events reported as of latest updates, traders price an 85.5% implied probability on exactly two, reflecting global baseline seismicity rates of roughly 10–20 such quakes annually—averaging under 0.5 per week—and the low likelihood of a third in the final hours amid no unusual seismic swarms or aftershock sequences. Real-time USGS monitoring continues, with inherent uncertainty in fault dynamics potentially allowing rare late surges, though historical patterns favor stability.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirms two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during March 23–29: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. With the period ending March 29 and no further qualifying events reported as of latest updates, traders price an 85.5% implied probability on exactly two, reflecting global baseline seismicity rates of roughly 10–20 such quakes annually—averaging under 0.5 per week—and the low likelihood of a third in the final hours amid no unusual seismic swarms or aftershock sequences. Real-time USGS monitoring continues, with inherent uncertainty in fault dynamics potentially allowing rare late surges, though historical patterns favor stability.

USGS data confirms two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during March 23–29: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. With the period ending March 29 and no further qualifying events reported as of latest updates, traders price an 85.5% implied probability on exactly two, reflecting global baseline seismicity rates of roughly 10–20 such quakes annually—averaging under 0.5 per week—and the low likelihood of a third in the final hours amid no unusual seismic swarms or aftershock sequences. Real-time USGS monitoring continues, with inherent uncertainty in fault dynamics potentially allowing rare late surges, though historical patterns favor stability.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "2" con 86%, seguido de "3" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 86¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 86% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" ha generado $207.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 20, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" es "2" con 86%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 86% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.