Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models have converged on a high temperature of 13°C in Milan on March 22, driving its 42.5% implied probability as traders price in mild spring conditions under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Current observations show morning lows around 10°C with partial cloud cover and moderate northerly winds capping solar heating, aligning closely with 12°C (25.5%) and 14°C (24.5%) as secondary outcomes per ARPA Lombardia guidance. Recent model runs reflect a departed cold front, shifting odds away from extremes; historical late-March averages of 13-14°C further bolster this clustering, though real-time hourly data from Linate Airport could still sway final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 22 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 22 de marzo?
13°C 42%
12°C 27%
14°C 23%
11°C 8.3%
$46,298 Vol.
$46,298 Vol.
8°C o menos
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
27%
13°C
42%
14°C
23%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C o más
<1%
13°C 42%
12°C 27%
14°C 23%
11°C 8.3%
$46,298 Vol.
$46,298 Vol.
8°C o menos
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
27%
13°C
42%
14°C
23%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models have converged on a high temperature of 13°C in Milan on March 22, driving its 42.5% implied probability as traders price in mild spring conditions under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Current observations show morning lows around 10°C with partial cloud cover and moderate northerly winds capping solar heating, aligning closely with 12°C (25.5%) and 14°C (24.5%) as secondary outcomes per ARPA Lombardia guidance. Recent model runs reflect a departed cold front, shifting odds away from extremes; historical late-March averages of 13-14°C further bolster this clustering, though real-time hourly data from Linate Airport could still sway final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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