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¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?

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¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?

Ended: Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Ended: Mar 26

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

28°C o más 100.0%

18°C o menos <1%

19°C <1%

20°C <1%

Polymarket

$251,521 Vol.

28°C o más 100.0%

18°C o menos <1%

19°C <1%

20°C <1%

Polymarket

$251,521 Vol.

18°C o menos

$25,727 Vol.

No

19°C

$11,576 Vol.

No

20°C

$13,016 Vol.

No

21°C

$12,405 Vol.

No

22°C

$17,063 Vol.

No

23°C

$27,374 Vol.

No

24°C

$23,922 Vol.

No

25°C

$19,776 Vol.

No

26°C

$23,435 Vol.

No

27°C

$20,764 Vol.

No

28°C o más

$56,464 Vol.

Sí

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high likelihood of the city's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on March 26, with urban areas expected to hit 28-30°C under sunny skies from a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Recent observations show March 25 maxima near 28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus indicating continued warm advection and no imminent cooling influences like sea breezes or fronts. This drives trader consensus to near 100% implied probability for the warmer outcome, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or sudden wind shifts, though current data shows scant support; intraday updates from the Observatory will refine this further as measurements unfold.

Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high likelihood of the city's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on March 26, with urban areas expected to hit 28-30°C under sunny skies from a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Recent observations show March 25 maxima near 28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus indicating continued warm advection and no imminent cooling influences like sea breezes or fronts. This drives trader consensus to near 100% implied probability for the warmer outcome, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or sudden wind shifts, though current data shows scant support; intraday updates from the Observatory will refine this further as measurements unfold.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high likelihood of the city's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on March 26, with urban areas expected to hit 28-30°C under sunny skies from a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Recent observations show March 25 maxima near 28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus indicating continued warm advection and no imminent cooling influences like sea breezes or fronts. This drives trader consensus to near 100% implied probability for the warmer outcome, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or sudden wind shifts, though current data shows scant support; intraday updates from the Observatory will refine this further as measurements unfold.

Hong Kong Observatory forecasts confirm a high likelihood of the city's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on March 26, with urban areas expected to hit 28-30°C under sunny skies from a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Recent observations show March 25 maxima near 28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus indicating continued warm advection and no imminent cooling influences like sea breezes or fronts. This drives trader consensus to near 100% implied probability for the warmer outcome, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or sudden wind shifts, though current data shows scant support; intraday updates from the Observatory will refine this further as measurements unfold.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "28°C o más" con 100%, seguido de "18°C o menos" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?" ha generado $251.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 22, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?" es "28°C o más" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "18°C o menos" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 26 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.