Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a Chicago high of 56°F or higher on March 19 stems from aligned forecasts from NOAA's National Weather Service and GFS/ECMWF models projecting peaks near 60-65°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. This warm anomaly builds on recent mild March patterns, with Chicago's climatological average high around 48°F, supported by high-resolution HRRR model runs showing minimal cloud cover and ample insolation. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected cold front or northerly wind shift from evolving Great Lakes low pressure, though current ensemble probabilities keep such downside risks below 5%, per Weather Prediction Center outlooks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 19 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 19 de marzo?
56°F o más 100.0%
37°F o menos <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$19,614 Vol.
$19,614 Vol.
37°F o menos
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56°F o más
Sí
56°F o más 100.0%
37°F o menos <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$19,614 Vol.
$19,614 Vol.
37°F o menos
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56°F o más
Sí
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a Chicago high of 56°F or higher on March 19 stems from aligned forecasts from NOAA's National Weather Service and GFS/ECMWF models projecting peaks near 60-65°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. This warm anomaly builds on recent mild March patterns, with Chicago's climatological average high around 48°F, supported by high-resolution HRRR model runs showing minimal cloud cover and ample insolation. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected cold front or northerly wind shift from evolving Great Lakes low pressure, though current ensemble probabilities keep such downside risks below 5%, per Weather Prediction Center outlooks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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