Polymarket traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom meeting on June 18-19, driven by April IPCA inflation printing at 3.69% year-over-year—within the 3% target midpoint tolerance—and steady disinflation momentum amid solid GDP growth without wage pressures. The committee held rates at 10.5% in May, citing fiscal risks from proposed spending bills, yet minutes signaled a data-dependent easing path if inflation stays benign. No-change pricing at 20.5% reflects hawkish caution on government deficits, while an increase at 12% remains unlikely barring upside surprises. Traders eye May IPCA release and tax reform updates as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 74%
No Change 21%
Increase 12%
Increase
12%
No Change
21%
Decrease
74%
Decrease 74%
No Change 21%
Increase 12%
Increase
12%
No Change
21%
Decrease
74%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 73.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom meeting on June 18-19, driven by April IPCA inflation printing at 3.69% year-over-year—within the 3% target midpoint tolerance—and steady disinflation momentum amid solid GDP growth without wage pressures. The committee held rates at 10.5% in May, citing fiscal risks from proposed spending bills, yet minutes signaled a data-dependent easing path if inflation stays benign. No-change pricing at 20.5% reflects hawkish caution on government deficits, while an increase at 12% remains unlikely barring upside surprises. Traders eye May IPCA release and tax reform updates as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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