Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF place Houston's March 28 high temperature in a tight 74-79°F range, driving the closely matched trader consensus with 22.5% implied probability for 78-79°F edging out nearby bins. This reflects southerly winds advecting warm Gulf moisture into a stable boundary layer, with ensemble means clustering near 77°F, though minor model divergences on afternoon cloud cover and convective potential introduce uncertainty that differentiates the leading outcomes. No major frontal passages are forecast, but diurnal heating rates could push toward the upper end; traders await tonight's 00z model runs for refined guidance amid historical March averages around 75°F.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 17%
$10,300 Vol.
$10,300 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
8%
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 17%
$10,300 Vol.
$10,300 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF place Houston's March 28 high temperature in a tight 74-79°F range, driving the closely matched trader consensus with 22.5% implied probability for 78-79°F edging out nearby bins. This reflects southerly winds advecting warm Gulf moisture into a stable boundary layer, with ensemble means clustering near 77°F, though minor model divergences on afternoon cloud cover and convective potential introduce uncertainty that differentiates the leading outcomes. No major frontal passages are forecast, but diurnal heating rates could push toward the upper end; traders await tonight's 00z model runs for refined guidance amid historical March averages around 75°F.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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