Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward an Ankara high of 11°C or 12°C on March 22, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 37% and 32.5%, reflecting minimal spread in predicted maxima around 10.5–11.8°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include GFS's cooler bias from northerly cold air advection versus ECMWF's slight warming from diurnal solar heating, amid seasonal norms of 11–13°C highs; recent 12Z model runs trimmed 13°C+ odds as upper-level troughing stabilizes. Uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and urban heat island effects in Ankara, with official Turkish MGM aligning near 11°C. Historical data shows March 22 volatility of ±2°C, pressuring traders on precise thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 37%
12°C 33%
10°C 21%
13°C 5.4%
$146,133 Vol.
$146,133 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
21%
11°C
37%
12°C
33%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 37%
12°C 33%
10°C 21%
13°C 5.4%
$146,133 Vol.
$146,133 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
21%
11°C
37%
12°C
33%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward an Ankara high of 11°C or 12°C on March 22, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 37% and 32.5%, reflecting minimal spread in predicted maxima around 10.5–11.8°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include GFS's cooler bias from northerly cold air advection versus ECMWF's slight warming from diurnal solar heating, amid seasonal norms of 11–13°C highs; recent 12Z model runs trimmed 13°C+ odds as upper-level troughing stabilizes. Uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and urban heat island effects in Ankara, with official Turkish MGM aligning near 11°C. Historical data shows March 22 volatility of ±2°C, pressuring traders on precise thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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