Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market™

ragutwo

Never knew making money in Polymarket was as easy as "read the rules"

wasabipea34

Weeeell. There's a fair chance someone will be bold enough to propose a yes/dispute the no in the following 24hrs. Polymarket DOES NOT resolve its markets, as that is on UMA's shoulders. UMA can be manipulated, though this market for 21st is unlikely to be a success in manipulation.

ragutwo

what is UMA?

Dimpled-Planet

If/when this disputes, UMA voters examining the record will find: Trump unilateral announcement (clearly unilateral per his own wording) Pakistan PM thank-you tweet (third-party mediator, not Iran government) NYT framing as Pakistan "courting" and "seeking to mediate" (not validating) Iran officials publicly rejecting (Ghalibaf adviser, Araghchi, negotiating team) Press TV / Iran International / Tehran Times reporting rejection Blockade continuing (a stated Iran claim of ceasefire violation) No joint statement exists Iran refusing Islamabad talks as of 21:07 GMT+1 This is a strong NO case on rule-text.

wasabipea34

Agreed, strongly agreed. Rules are clear as a day; it has to be the same playbook as two weeks ago to qualify (which it clearly isn't). However, there is big money to be lost on the yes side, and these ppl won't give up easily, likely disputing the outcome if NO or proposing yes otherwise.

Szarokbele

https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by-april-18-2026

ragutwo

Never knew making money in Polymarket was as easy as "read the rules"

wasabipea34

Weeeell. There's a fair chance someone will be bold enough to propose a yes/dispute the no in the following 24hrs. Polymarket DOES NOT resolve its markets, as that is on UMA's shoulders. UMA can be manipulated, though this market for 21st is unlikely to be a success in manipulation.

ragutwo

what is UMA?

Dimpled-Planet

If/when this disputes, UMA voters examining the record will find: Trump unilateral announcement (clearly unilateral per his own wording) Pakistan PM thank-you tweet (third-party mediator, not Iran government) NYT framing as Pakistan "courting" and "seeking to mediate" (not validating) Iran officials publicly rejecting (Ghalibaf adviser, Araghchi, negotiating team) Press TV / Iran International / Tehran Times reporting rejection Blockade continuing (a stated Iran claim of ceasefire violation) No joint statement exists Iran refusing Islamabad talks as of 21:07 GMT+1 This is a strong NO case on rule-text.

wasabipea34

Agreed, strongly agreed. Rules are clear as a day; it has to be the same playbook as two weeks ago to qualify (which it clearly isn't). However, there is big money to be lost on the yes side, and these ppl won't give up easily, likely disputing the outcome if NO or proposing yes otherwise.

Szarokbele

https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by-april-18-2026

ragutwo

Never knew making money in Polymarket was as easy as "read the rules"

wasabipea34

Weeeell. There's a fair chance someone will be bold enough to propose a yes/dispute the no in the following 24hrs. Polymarket DOES NOT resolve its markets, as that is on UMA's shoulders. UMA can be manipulated, though this market for 21st is unlikely to be a success in manipulation.

ragutwo

what is UMA?

Dimpled-Planet

If/when this disputes, UMA voters examining the record will find: Trump unilateral announcement (clearly unilateral per his own wording) Pakistan PM thank-you tweet (third-party mediator, not Iran government) NYT framing as Pakistan "courting" and "seeking to mediate" (not validating) Iran officials publicly rejecting (Ghalibaf adviser, Araghchi, negotiating team) Press TV / Iran International / Tehran Times reporting rejection Blockade continuing (a stated Iran claim of ceasefire violation) No joint statement exists Iran refusing Islamabad talks as of 21:07 GMT+1 This is a strong NO case on rule-text.

wasabipea34

Agreed, strongly agreed. Rules are clear as a day; it has to be the same playbook as two weeks ago to qualify (which it clearly isn't). However, there is big money to be lost on the yes side, and these ppl won't give up easily, likely disputing the outcome if NO or proposing yes otherwise.

Szarokbele

https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by-april-18-2026