Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for UK proscription of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, driven by the Home Office's January 2026 review concluding against designation despite the EU's late-January terrorist listing and actions by allies like the US, Canada, and Australia. Business Secretary Peter Kyle affirmed this stance on January 13 amid diplomatic concerns over proscribing a state actor under the Terrorism Act 2000, with new legislation floated but not enacted. Recent March pressure from MPs like Priti Patel, Liberal Democrats' proposed bill, and London Assembly calls has yielded no government shift, signaling procedural and foreign policy hurdles likely to persist through mid-year absent major escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于英国是否会在6月30日之前将伊斯兰革命卫队指定为恐怖组织？
英国是否会在6月30日之前将伊斯兰革命卫队指定为恐怖组织？
是
$81,145 交易量
$81,145 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$81,145 交易量
$81,145 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for UK proscription of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, driven by the Home Office's January 2026 review concluding against designation despite the EU's late-January terrorist listing and actions by allies like the US, Canada, and Australia. Business Secretary Peter Kyle affirmed this stance on January 13 amid diplomatic concerns over proscribing a state actor under the Terrorism Act 2000, with new legislation floated but not enacted. Recent March pressure from MPs like Priti Patel, Liberal Democrats' proposed bill, and London Assembly calls has yielded no government shift, signaling procedural and foreign policy hurdles likely to persist through mid-year absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
市场开放时间： Nov 18, 2025, 11:33 AM ET
交易量
$81,145结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for UK proscription of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, driven by the Home Office's January 2026 review concluding against designation despite the EU's late-January terrorist listing and actions by allies like the US, Canada, and Australia. Business Secretary Peter Kyle affirmed this stance on January 13 amid diplomatic concerns over proscribing a state actor under the Terrorism Act 2000, with new legislation floated but not enacted. Recent March pressure from MPs like Priti Patel, Liberal Democrats' proposed bill, and London Assembly calls has yielded no government shift, signaling procedural and foreign policy hurdles likely to persist through mid-year absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
交易量
$81,145结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for UK proscription of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, driven by the Home Office's January 2026 review concluding against designation despite the EU's late-January terrorist listing and actions by allies like the US, Canada, and Australia. Business Secretary Peter Kyle affirmed this stance on January 13 amid diplomatic concerns over proscribing a state actor under the Terrorism Act 2000, with new legislation floated but not enacted. Recent March pressure from MPs like Priti Patel, Liberal Democrats' proposed bill, and London Assembly calls has yielded no government shift, signaling procedural and foreign policy hurdles likely to persist through mid-year absent major escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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