Trader consensus on a 99.7% "No" probability for Rep. Ilhan Omar resigning by March 31 stems primarily from the absence of any official statements, ethics investigations, or party pressures indicating such a move, following her decisive November 2024 re-election in Minnesota's solidly Democratic 5th District and swearing-in to the 119th Congress on January 3. Recent developments, including no credible reports of legal troubles or internal Democratic caucus discord targeting her tenure, reinforce this stability amid a history of withstanding primary challenges. While unforeseen events like a sudden health crisis, felony indictment, or voluntary withdrawal for family reasons could theoretically alter outcomes, current evidence points to continuity through quarter's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,620,645 交易量
$1,620,645 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$1,620,645 交易量
$1,620,645 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,620,645结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,620,645结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 99.7% "No" probability for Rep. Ilhan Omar resigning by March 31 stems primarily from the absence of any official statements, ethics investigations, or party pressures indicating such a move, following her decisive November 2024 re-election in Minnesota's solidly Democratic 5th District and swearing-in to the 119th Congress on January 3. Recent developments, including no credible reports of legal troubles or internal Democratic caucus discord targeting her tenure, reinforce this stability amid a history of withstanding primary challenges. While unforeseen events like a sudden health crisis, felony indictment, or voluntary withdrawal for family reasons could theoretically alter outcomes, current evidence points to continuity through quarter's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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