President Trump's early March 2026 dismissal of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem—replaced by Sen. Markwayne Mullin amid immigration enforcement disputes and agency performance issues—marks the first cabinet shakeup of his second term, driving trader consensus toward higher departure risks despite debate over her reassignment to a special envoy role keeping her within the administration. This follows 29% turnover in top Executive Office positions by January, per Brookings tracking, with National Security Council exits including adviser Mike Waltz contributing to broader instability echoing first-term patterns. FBI Director Kash Patel draws scrutiny over bureau reforms, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces backlash. 2026 midterms loom as a catalyst for further changes, including rumored post-election resignation by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$403,657 交易量
2026-12-31
克里斯蒂·诺姆
63%
图尔西·加巴德
49%
潘·邦迪
42%
丹·斯卡维诺
39%
约翰·拉特克利夫
39%
卡什·帕特尔
39%
皮特·海格塞斯
41%
苏西·怀尔斯
37%
大卫·萨克斯
33%
霍华德·卢特尼克
31%
卡罗琳·利维特
30%
斯蒂芬·米勒
26%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
26%
斯科特·贝森特
22%
马尔科·鲁比奥
19%
李泽尔丁
16%
汤姆·霍曼
23%
拉塞尔·沃特
16%
$403,657 交易量
克里斯蒂·诺姆
$83,442 交易量
63%
图尔西·加巴德
$3,231 交易量
49%
潘·邦迪
$45,300 交易量
42%
丹·斯卡维诺
$0 交易量
39%
约翰·拉特克利夫
$0 交易量
39%
卡什·帕特尔
$113,131 交易量
39%
皮特·海格塞斯
$6,272 交易量
41%
苏西·怀尔斯
$38,128 交易量
37%
大卫·萨克斯
$5,848 交易量
33%
霍华德·卢特尼克
$31,734 交易量
31%
卡罗琳·利维特
$8,374 交易量
30%
斯蒂芬·米勒
$0 交易量
26%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
$63,052 交易量
26%
斯科特·贝森特
$0 交易量
22%
马尔科·鲁比奥
$0 交易量
19%
李泽尔丁
$0 交易量
16%
汤姆·霍曼
$0 交易量
23%
拉塞尔·沃特
$0 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump's early March 2026 dismissal of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem—replaced by Sen. Markwayne Mullin amid immigration enforcement disputes and agency performance issues—marks the first cabinet shakeup of his second term, driving trader consensus toward higher departure risks despite debate over her reassignment to a special envoy role keeping her within the administration. This follows 29% turnover in top Executive Office positions by January, per Brookings tracking, with National Security Council exits including adviser Mike Waltz contributing to broader instability echoing first-term patterns. FBI Director Kash Patel draws scrutiny over bureau reforms, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces backlash. 2026 midterms loom as a catalyst for further changes, including rumored post-election resignation by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
交易量
$403,657结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump's early March 2026 dismissal of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem—replaced by Sen. Markwayne Mullin amid immigration enforcement disputes and agency performance issues—marks the first cabinet shakeup of his second term, driving trader consensus toward higher departure risks despite debate over her reassignment to a special envoy role keeping her within the administration. This follows 29% turnover in top Executive Office positions by January, per Brookings tracking, with National Security Council exits including adviser Mike Waltz contributing to broader instability echoing first-term patterns. FBI Director Kash Patel draws scrutiny over bureau reforms, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces backlash. 2026 midterms loom as a catalyst for further changes, including rumored post-election resignation by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$403,657结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's early March 2026 dismissal of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem—replaced by Sen. Markwayne Mullin amid immigration enforcement disputes and agency performance issues—marks the first cabinet shakeup of his second term, driving trader consensus toward higher departure risks despite debate over her reassignment to a special envoy role keeping her within the administration. This follows 29% turnover in top Executive Office positions by January, per Brookings tracking, with National Security Council exits including adviser Mike Waltz contributing to broader instability echoing first-term patterns. FBI Director Kash Patel draws scrutiny over bureau reforms, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces backlash. 2026 midterms loom as a catalyst for further changes, including rumored post-election resignation by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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