Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military facilities producing ballistic missiles, direct retaliation for Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 missiles at Israel—the first overt attack from Iranian soil. This marked the most significant direct military action against Iran in recent years, amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, both backed by Tehran. The US supported Israel's defense with intercepts but has avoided offensive strikes on Iran proper, while conducting operations against Houthis. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals potential escalation, including renewed "maximum pressure" sanctions. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation risks, nuclear enrichment advances, and diplomatic channels through March 31 resolution, with no further direct actions confirmed since late October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$10,211,720 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
沙特阿拉伯
12%
阿联酋
7%
巴林
3%
卡塔尔
3%
科威特
2%
英国
1%
任意欧盟国家
1%
约旦
1%
土耳其
1%
法国
1%
阿曼
1%
德国
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,211,720 交易量
沙特阿拉伯
$2,034,030 交易量
12%
阿联酋
$2,534,318 交易量
7%
巴林
$386,444 交易量
3%
卡塔尔
$926,220 交易量
3%
科威特
$206,606 交易量
2%
英国
$931,837 交易量
1%
任意欧盟国家
$451,068 交易量
1%
约旦
$183,019 交易量
1%
土耳其
$469,951 交易量
1%
法国
$722,115 交易量
1%
阿曼
$128,149 交易量
1%
德国
$905,087 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$333,350 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military facilities producing ballistic missiles, direct retaliation for Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 missiles at Israel—the first overt attack from Iranian soil. This marked the most significant direct military action against Iran in recent years, amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, both backed by Tehran. The US supported Israel's defense with intercepts but has avoided offensive strikes on Iran proper, while conducting operations against Houthis. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals potential escalation, including renewed "maximum pressure" sanctions. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation risks, nuclear enrichment advances, and diplomatic channels through March 31 resolution, with no further direct actions confirmed since late October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$10,211,720结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military facilities producing ballistic missiles, direct retaliation for Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 missiles at Israel—the first overt attack from Iranian soil. This marked the most significant direct military action against Iran in recent years, amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, both backed by Tehran. The US supported Israel's defense with intercepts but has avoided offensive strikes on Iran proper, while conducting operations against Houthis. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals potential escalation, including renewed "maximum pressure" sanctions. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation risks, nuclear enrichment advances, and diplomatic channels through March 31 resolution, with no further direct actions confirmed since late October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,211,720结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military facilities producing ballistic missiles, direct retaliation for Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 missiles at Israel—the first overt attack from Iranian soil. This marked the most significant direct military action against Iran in recent years, amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, both backed by Tehran. The US supported Israel's defense with intercepts but has avoided offensive strikes on Iran proper, while conducting operations against Houthis. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals potential escalation, including renewed "maximum pressure" sanctions. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation risks, nuclear enrichment advances, and diplomatic channels through March 31 resolution, with no further direct actions confirmed since late October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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