Escalating Middle East tensions anchor trader consensus, with Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites marking the last direct military action against Iran, followed by de-escalation signals including a Hezbollah ceasefire. US strikes target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen over Red Sea attacks, but spare Iranian territory amid stalled nuclear diplomacy and IAEA scrutiny of enrichment violations. Incoming Trump administration vows maximum pressure via sanctions and potential military options, yet no confirmed plans exist before March 31. Upcoming IAEA board meetings and UN deadlines could spur escalation, though barriers like allied coordination and retaliation risks temper probabilities across countries like Israel, US, and Saudi Arabia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$10,126,639 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
阿联酋
6%
沙特阿拉伯
6%
卡塔尔
3%
巴林
2%
科威特
2%
英国
2%
任意欧盟国家
1%
约旦
1%
土耳其
1%
阿曼
1%
法国
1%
德国
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,126,639 交易量
阿联酋
$2,515,200 交易量
6%
沙特阿拉伯
$2,003,849 交易量
6%
卡塔尔
$922,202 交易量
3%
巴林
$382,789 交易量
2%
科威特
$200,931 交易量
2%
英国
$926,875 交易量
2%
任意欧盟国家
$440,810 交易量
1%
约旦
$183,019 交易量
1%
土耳其
$466,261 交易量
1%
阿曼
$128,149 交易量
1%
法国
$719,395 交易量
1%
德国
$903,810 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$333,350 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating Middle East tensions anchor trader consensus, with Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites marking the last direct military action against Iran, followed by de-escalation signals including a Hezbollah ceasefire. US strikes target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen over Red Sea attacks, but spare Iranian territory amid stalled nuclear diplomacy and IAEA scrutiny of enrichment violations. Incoming Trump administration vows maximum pressure via sanctions and potential military options, yet no confirmed plans exist before March 31. Upcoming IAEA board meetings and UN deadlines could spur escalation, though barriers like allied coordination and retaliation risks temper probabilities across countries like Israel, US, and Saudi Arabia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$10,126,639结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating Middle East tensions anchor trader consensus, with Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites marking the last direct military action against Iran, followed by de-escalation signals including a Hezbollah ceasefire. US strikes target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen over Red Sea attacks, but spare Iranian territory amid stalled nuclear diplomacy and IAEA scrutiny of enrichment violations. Incoming Trump administration vows maximum pressure via sanctions and potential military options, yet no confirmed plans exist before March 31. Upcoming IAEA board meetings and UN deadlines could spur escalation, though barriers like allied coordination and retaliation risks temper probabilities across countries like Israel, US, and Saudi Arabia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,126,639结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Middle East tensions anchor trader consensus, with Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites marking the last direct military action against Iran, followed by de-escalation signals including a Hezbollah ceasefire. US strikes target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen over Red Sea attacks, but spare Iranian territory amid stalled nuclear diplomacy and IAEA scrutiny of enrichment violations. Incoming Trump administration vows maximum pressure via sanctions and potential military options, yet no confirmed plans exist before March 31. Upcoming IAEA board meetings and UN deadlines could spur escalation, though barriers like allied coordination and retaliation risks temper probabilities across countries like Israel, US, and Saudi Arabia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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