Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$10,834,044 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
沙特阿拉伯
4%
阿联酋
3%
卡塔尔
2%
巴林
2%
约旦
1%
任意欧盟国家
1%
英国
1%
科威特
1%
土耳其
1%
法国
1%
阿曼
1%
德国
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,834,044 交易量
沙特阿拉伯
$2,205,481 交易量
4%
阿联酋
$2,851,318 交易量
3%
卡塔尔
$946,120 交易量
2%
巴林
$392,889 交易量
2%
约旦
$189,690 交易量
1%
任意欧盟国家
$472,045 交易量
1%
英国
$948,390 交易量
1%
科威特
$211,626 交易量
1%
土耳其
$481,794 交易量
1%
法国
$750,278 交易量
1%
阿曼
$132,053 交易量
1%
德国
$912,744 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$339,708 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ET
交易量
$10,834,044结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,834,044结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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