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Which coalition will form the next German government?

Market icon

Which coalition will form the next German government?

CDU/CSU & SPD 100.0%

CDU/CSU, FDP, & Greens <1%

Other <1%

CDU/CSU, SPD, & Greens <1%

Polymarket

$22,837,927 交易量

CDU/CSU & SPD 100.0%

CDU/CSU, FDP, & Greens <1%

Other <1%

CDU/CSU, SPD, & Greens <1%

Polymarket

$22,837,927 交易量

CDU/CSU, FDP, & Greens

$479,189 交易量

No

Other

$1,214,969 交易量

No

CDU/CSU & SPD

$1,934,548 交易量

Yes

CDU/CSU, SPD, & Greens

$866,659 交易量

No

CDU/CSU & AfD

$1,359,645 交易量

No

CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW

$998,205 交易量

No

CDU/CSU & Greens

$8,182,739 交易量

No

CDU/CSU, SPD, & FDP

$579,441 交易量

No

SPD, FDP, & Greens

$7,222,531 交易量

No

The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).

The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election.

If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”.

Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
交易量
$22,837,927
结束日期
2025-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).

The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election.

If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”.

Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
交易量
$22,837,927
结束日期
2025-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Which coalition will form the next German government?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"CDU/CSU & SPD",概率为 100%,其次是"CDU/CSU, FDP, & Greens",概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"Which coalition will form the next German government?"已产生 $22.8 million 的总交易量(自Jan 28, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Which coalition will form the next German government?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Which coalition will form the next German government?"的当前领先者是"CDU/CSU & SPD",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"CDU/CSU, FDP, & Greens",概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Which coalition will form the next German government?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。