**Jeffrey Kessler leads trader consensus at 73.5% implied probability to win West Virginia's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on May 12, driven by his decades of legislative experience as former Senate President and superior name recognition in a low-turnout race.** His high-profile January announcement positioned him as the establishment frontrunner amid a fragmented field, with no public polls emerging to challenge this view and limited developments since early 2026 filings. Marine veteran Zachary Shrewsbury holds second at 13.5%, appealing to progressives via online organizing despite 2025 allegations resurfacing occasionally. Challengers Rachel Fetty Anderson, Rio Phillips, and attorney Thornton Cooper trail with single digits, splitting progressive and outsider votes as early voting nears. Absent endorsements or scandals, Kessler's edge persists in this skin-in-the-game assessment.