Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Charles Booker at 79.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's Democratic Senate primary, driven by his commanding lead in recent polls and fundraising momentum. Final pre-primary surveys, including an Emerson poll showing Booker at 43% to Amy McGrath's 21%, underscore his appeal to the progressive base bolstered by endorsements from figures like Bernie Sanders and strong grassroots support from his 2020 Senate bid. McGrath, at 17.5%, trails amid lingering fallout from her narrow 2020 general election loss, while other challengers like Pamela Stevenson remain marginal at 2.2% due to limited visibility and resources. The May 21 primary looms as the key test, with low expected turnout amplifying base mobilization advantages.