Recent YouGov MRP modeling from late March projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-member system, driving trader consensus to an 81.5% implied probability for victory amid Welsh Labour's collapse to 12-18% vote shares in successive polls. Plaid holds a slim lead over Reform UK—30% to 27% in the April 1 Beaufort survey and similar in moving averages—reflecting voter realignment away from Labour and Welsh Conservatives following historic by-election losses and dissatisfaction with incumbency. No party nears a majority, with coalition negotiations likely; upcoming campaign events could tighten the Plaid-Reform contest in this closely watched race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于威尔士民族党 82%
改革英国党 16.4%
威尔士工党 <1%
威尔士保守党 <1%
$54,938 交易量
$54,938 交易量
2026-05-07
威尔士民族党
82%
改革英国党
16%
威尔士工党
1%
威尔士保守党
<1%
威尔士自由民主党
<1%
威尔士绿党
<1%
威尔士民族党 82%
改革英国党 16.4%
威尔士工党 <1%
威尔士保守党 <1%
$54,938 交易量
$54,938 交易量
2026-05-07
威尔士民族党
$9,611 交易量
82%
改革英国党
$6,721 交易量
16%
威尔士工党
$18,056 交易量
1%
威尔士保守党
$12,460 交易量
<1%
威尔士自由民主党
$4,833 交易量
<1%
威尔士绿党
$3,255 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Recent YouGov MRP modeling from late March projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-member system, driving trader consensus to an 81.5% implied probability for victory amid Welsh Labour's collapse to 12-18% vote shares in successive polls. Plaid holds a slim lead over Reform UK—30% to 27% in the April 1 Beaufort survey and similar in moving averages—reflecting voter realignment away from Labour and Welsh Conservatives following historic by-election losses and dissatisfaction with incumbency. No party nears a majority, with coalition negotiations likely; upcoming campaign events could tighten the Plaid-Reform contest in this closely watched race.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
交易量
$54,938结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Recent YouGov MRP modeling from late March projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-member system, driving trader consensus to an 81.5% implied probability for victory amid Welsh Labour's collapse to 12-18% vote shares in successive polls. Plaid holds a slim lead over Reform UK—30% to 27% in the April 1 Beaufort survey and similar in moving averages—reflecting voter realignment away from Labour and Welsh Conservatives following historic by-election losses and dissatisfaction with incumbency. No party nears a majority, with coalition negotiations likely; upcoming campaign events could tighten the Plaid-Reform contest in this closely watched race.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
交易量
$54,938结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent YouGov MRP modeling from late March projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-member system, driving trader consensus to an 81.5% implied probability for victory amid Welsh Labour's collapse to 12-18% vote shares in successive polls. Plaid holds a slim lead over Reform UK—30% to 27% in the April 1 Beaufort survey and similar in moving averages—reflecting voter realignment away from Labour and Welsh Conservatives following historic by-election losses and dissatisfaction with incumbency. No party nears a majority, with coalition negotiations likely; upcoming campaign events could tighten the Plaid-Reform contest in this closely watched race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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