Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 交易量
$9,748,236 交易量
<20
否
20-39
否
40-59
否
60-79
否
80-99
否
100-119
否
120-139
否
140-159
否
160-179
否
180-199
否
200-219
否
220-239
是
240-259
否
260-279
否
280-299
否
300-319
否
320-339
否
340-359
否
360-379
否
380-399
否
400-419
否
420-439
否
440-459
否
460-479
否
480-499
否
500-519
否
520-539
否
540-559
否
560-579
否
580+
否
220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 交易量
$9,748,236 交易量
<20
否
20-39
否
40-59
否
60-79
否
80-99
否
100-119
否
120-139
否
140-159
否
160-179
否
180-199
否
200-219
否
220-239
是
240-259
否
260-279
否
280-299
否
300-319
否
320-339
否
340-359
否
360-379
否
380-399
否
400-419
否
420-439
否
440-459
否
460-479
否
480-499
否
500-519
否
520-539
否
540-559
否
560-579
否
580+
否
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 18, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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