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美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?

Market icon

美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?

$529,033,417 交易量

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$19,193 交易量

1月11日

$3,035,454 交易量

1月12日

$1,743,135 交易量

1月13日

$3,335,543 交易量

1月14日

$13,619,742 交易量

1月15日

$7,975,002 交易量

1月16日

$8,491,723 交易量

1月17日

$3,823,998 交易量

1月18日

$5,468,913 交易量

1月23日

$12,296,618 交易量

1月24日

$2,924,662 交易量

1月25日

$2,703,692 交易量

1月26日

$6,908,538 交易量

1月27日

$2,498,074 交易量

1月28日

$1,950,685 交易量

1月29日

$3,064,539 交易量

1月30日

$3,469,659 交易量

1月31日

$41,754,060 交易量

2月1日

$6,629,658 交易量

2月2日

$4,246,232 交易量

2月3日

$3,763,165 交易量

2月4日

$3,844,340 交易量

2月5日

$4,461,531 交易量

2月6日

$9,750,256 交易量

2月7日

$3,615,405 交易量

2月8日

$3,821,142 交易量

2月9日

$17,561,112 交易量

2月10日

$10,496,937 交易量

2月11日

$4,493,524 交易量

2月12日

$4,187,886 交易量

2月13日

$15,146,244 交易量

2月14日

$4,140,716 交易量

2月15日

$4,542,348 交易量

2月16日

$4,855,990 交易量

2月17日

$5,599,406 交易量

2月18日

$7,408,763 交易量

2月19日

$8,798,853 交易量

2月20日

$18,810,054 交易量

2月21日

$12,250,013 交易量

2月22日

$12,611,170 交易量

2月23日

$14,022,419 交易量

2月24日

$16,942,274 交易量

2月25日

$10,517,389 交易量

2月26日

$14,489,547 交易量

2月27日

$25,087,849 交易量

2月28日

$89,652,867 交易量

3月1日

$8,093,539 交易量

3月2日

$3,812,922 交易量

3月3日

$1,917,863 交易量

3月4日

$1,376,485 交易量

3月5日

$1,565,799 交易量

3月6日

$1,008,204 交易量

3月7日

$2,470,666 交易量

3月8日

$539,454 交易量

3月9日

$379,810 交易量

3月10日

$269,970 交易量

3月11日

$190,483 交易量

3月12日

$197,658 交易量

3月13日

$283,107 交易量

3月14日

$357,946 交易量

3月15日

$6,642,886 交易量

3月31日

$22,213,247 交易量

6月30日

$9,193,272 交易量

12月31日

$1,689,785 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$529,033,417
结束日期
Jun 30, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 是

无争议

最终结果: 是

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2月28日" at 100%, followed by "3月1日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" has generated $529 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is "2月28日" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月1日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.