Market icon

美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?

Jun 30

$341,000,871 交易量

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$341,000,871
结束日期
Jun 30, 2026
创建时间
Feb 16, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 57+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 73%, followed by "6月30日" at 67%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" has generated $341 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?," browse the 57+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is "12月31日" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 67%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?

Jun 30

$341,000,871 交易量

Polymarket

2月21日

$6,003,080 交易量

1%

2月22日

$3,182,925 交易量

3%

2月23日

$1,407,711 交易量

4%

2月24日

$933,411 交易量

6%

2月25日

$661,054 交易量

7%

2月26日

$930,557 交易量

10%

2月27日

$995,519 交易量

14%

2月28日

$32,525,730 交易量

18%

3月1日

$159,348 交易量

21%

3月2日

$82,840 交易量

24%

3月3日

$38,534 交易量

27%

3月4日

$39,493 交易量

29%

3月5日

$98,859 交易量

31%

3月6日

$92,172 交易量

34%

3月7日

$159,968 交易量

37%

3月15日

$2,214,637 交易量

46%

3月31日

$12,953,718 交易量

61%

6月30日

$6,885,928 交易量

67%

12月31日

$382,857 交易量

73%

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 57+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 73%, followed by "6月30日" at 67%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" has generated $341 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?," browse the 57+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" is "12月31日" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 67%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国袭击伊朗的方式是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.