Amid an escalating US-Israel air campaign against Iran now entering its sixth week since February 28 airstrikes targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military leadership, trader consensus prices over 65% odds of US ground forces entering Iran by April 30, rising to 76% by year-end, driven by President Trump's recent vows to intensify strikes on infrastructure like bridges and power plants after claiming Iran's air force and navy are neutralized. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf refineries, and US bases, prompting rapid US munitions depletion and over 50,000 troops amassed regionally, including recent Marine deployments, amid reports of dwindling high-value aerial targets. No verified US boots-on-ground incursion has occurred, but sustained escalation without ceasefire talks heightens risks of ground phase, with oil disruptions and potential diplomatic overtures as key variables ahead of any policy deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$103,421,138 交易量
2026-03-03
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
66%
12月31日
76%
$103,421,138 交易量
3月31日
$71,909,158 交易量
<1%
4月30日
$20,542,042 交易量
66%
12月31日
$8,900,665 交易量
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid an escalating US-Israel air campaign against Iran now entering its sixth week since February 28 airstrikes targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military leadership, trader consensus prices over 65% odds of US ground forces entering Iran by April 30, rising to 76% by year-end, driven by President Trump's recent vows to intensify strikes on infrastructure like bridges and power plants after claiming Iran's air force and navy are neutralized. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf refineries, and US bases, prompting rapid US munitions depletion and over 50,000 troops amassed regionally, including recent Marine deployments, amid reports of dwindling high-value aerial targets. No verified US boots-on-ground incursion has occurred, but sustained escalation without ceasefire talks heightens risks of ground phase, with oil disruptions and potential diplomatic overtures as key variables ahead of any policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$103,421,138市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid an escalating US-Israel air campaign against Iran now entering its sixth week since February 28 airstrikes targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military leadership, trader consensus prices over 65% odds of US ground forces entering Iran by April 30, rising to 76% by year-end, driven by President Trump's recent vows to intensify strikes on infrastructure like bridges and power plants after claiming Iran's air force and navy are neutralized. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf refineries, and US bases, prompting rapid US munitions depletion and over 50,000 troops amassed regionally, including recent Marine deployments, amid reports of dwindling high-value aerial targets. No verified US boots-on-ground incursion has occurred, but sustained escalation without ceasefire talks heightens risks of ground phase, with oil disruptions and potential diplomatic overtures as key variables ahead of any policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$103,421,138市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Amid an escalating US-Israel air campaign against Iran now entering its sixth week since February 28 airstrikes targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military leadership, trader consensus prices over 65% odds of US ground forces entering Iran by April 30, rising to 76% by year-end, driven by President Trump's recent vows to intensify strikes on infrastructure like bridges and power plants after claiming Iran's air force and navy are neutralized. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf refineries, and US bases, prompting rapid US munitions depletion and over 50,000 troops amassed regionally, including recent Marine deployments, amid reports of dwindling high-value aerial targets. No verified US boots-on-ground incursion has occurred, but sustained escalation without ceasefire talks heightens risks of ground phase, with oil disruptions and potential diplomatic overtures as key variables ahead of any policy deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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