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选举·主要

TX-38共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·主要

TX-38共和党初选获胜者

乔恩·邦克 94.4%

Shelly deZevallos 1.4%

詹妮弗·桑特 1.0%

艾弗里·艾尔斯 <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 交易量

乔恩·邦克 94.4%

Shelly deZevallos 1.4%

詹妮弗·桑特 1.0%

艾弗里·艾尔斯 <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 交易量

乔恩·邦克

$16,452 交易量

94%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,015 交易量

1%

詹妮弗·桑特

$2,227 交易量

1%

艾弗里·艾尔斯

$2,210 交易量

1%

迈克尔·普拉特

$0 交易量

1%

Jeff Yuna

$2,411 交易量

<1%

克雷格·戈拉尔斯基

$0 交易量

<1%

巴雷特·麦克纳布

$0 交易量

<1%

拉里·鲁宾

$1,985 交易量

<1%

卡门·蒙蒂尔

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for the Texas 38th Congressional District Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by his dominant 47% in the March 3 crowded 10-candidate field—nearly double runner-up Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in this open seat GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include President Trump's endorsement, Sen. Ted Cruz's backing, Club for Growth support, top fundraising exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsement from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30. DeZevallos's grassroots appeal and $666,000 raised offer limited traction; realistic challenges would require a Bonck scandal, attack ads eroding his lead, or low-turnout dynamics favoring her base in the Houston-area battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$28,301
结束日期
2026-05-26
市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for the Texas 38th Congressional District Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by his dominant 47% in the March 3 crowded 10-candidate field—nearly double runner-up Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in this open seat GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include President Trump's endorsement, Sen. Ted Cruz's backing, Club for Growth support, top fundraising exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsement from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30. DeZevallos's grassroots appeal and $666,000 raised offer limited traction; realistic challenges would require a Bonck scandal, attack ads eroding his lead, or low-turnout dynamics favoring her base in the Houston-area battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$28,301
结束日期
2026-05-26
市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"TX-38共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"乔恩·邦克"，概率为 94%，其次是"Shelly deZevallos"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 94¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 94%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"TX-38共和党初选获胜者"已产生 $28.3K 的总交易量（自Feb 6, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"TX-38共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"TX-38共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"乔恩·邦克"，概率为 94%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 94%。紧随其后的结果是"Shelly deZevallos"，概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"TX-38共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。