Josée Massi's commanding 99.7% implied probability in the Toulon mayoral election market stems from her entrenched position as the incumbent mayor, succeeding long-time leader Hubert Falco in 2021 amid broad local support for their center-right list. Recent municipal council votes and infrastructure projects under her leadership have bolstered approval ratings, while challengers like Jean-Michel Ghiotto and Laure Lavalette trail far in early polling and lack national party backing. Trader sentiment reflects this lopsided dynamic, akin to high-incumbent reelection base rates in French local races. Realistic challenges include a high-profile opponent endorsement surge before the 2026 vote or unforeseen scandal, though no such catalysts have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Josée Massi 99.8%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托 <1%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特 <1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔 <1%
$114,791 交易量
$114,791 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
100%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托
1%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特
<1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔
<1%
伊萨琳·科尔尼尔
<1%
米歇尔·邦努斯
<1%
Josée Massi 99.8%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托 <1%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特 <1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔 <1%
$114,791 交易量
$114,791 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
$49,796 交易量
100%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托
$16,343 交易量
1%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特
$48,651 交易量
<1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔
$0 交易量
<1%
伊萨琳·科尔尼尔
$0 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·邦努斯
$0 交易量
<1%
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
交易量
$114,791结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$114,791结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Josée Massi's commanding 99.7% implied probability in the Toulon mayoral election market stems from her entrenched position as the incumbent mayor, succeeding long-time leader Hubert Falco in 2021 amid broad local support for their center-right list. Recent municipal council votes and infrastructure projects under her leadership have bolstered approval ratings, while challengers like Jean-Michel Ghiotto and Laure Lavalette trail far in early polling and lack national party backing. Trader sentiment reflects this lopsided dynamic, akin to high-incumbent reelection base rates in French local races. Realistic challenges include a high-profile opponent endorsement surge before the 2026 vote or unforeseen scandal, though no such catalysts have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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