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政治·美国大选

德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·美国大选

德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者

May 26

May 26

肯·帕克斯顿 70%

分组项标题：约翰·康宁 31%

道恩·班克汉姆 <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$12,889,554 交易量

肯·帕克斯顿 70%

分组项标题：约翰·康宁 31%

道恩·班克汉姆 <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$12,889,554 交易量

Market icon

肯·帕克斯顿

$4,014,639 交易量

70%

Market icon

分组项标题：约翰·康宁

$2,800,147 交易量

31%

Market icon

道恩·班克汉姆

$883,609 交易量

<1%

Market icon

Beth Van Duyne

$3,448,245 交易量

<1%

Market icon

分组项标题：韦斯利·亨特

$1,742,924 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's 68.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate reflects trader consensus on his frontrunner status following his July 2024 campaign launch challenging three-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who trails at 29.5%. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and alignment with the GOP base have boosted his standing in recent internal polls showing him ahead by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Cornyn's fundraising edge and establishment support provide a path, but base skepticism over his bipartisan votes weighs on his odds. Minor candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt linger below 0.1% due to limited name recognition and resources ahead of the March 2026 primary.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's 68.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate reflects trader consensus on his frontrunner status following his July 2024 campaign launch challenging three-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who trails at 29.5%. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and alignment with the GOP base have boosted his standing in recent internal polls showing him ahead by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Cornyn's fundraising edge and establishment support provide a path, but base skepticism over his bipartisan votes weighs on his odds. Minor candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt linger below 0.1% due to limited name recognition and resources ahead of the March 2026 primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's 68.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate reflects trader consensus on his frontrunner status following his July 2024 campaign launch challenging three-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who trails at 29.5%. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and alignment with the GOP base have boosted his standing in recent internal polls showing him ahead by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Cornyn's fundraising edge and establishment support provide a path, but base skepticism over his bipartisan votes weighs on his odds. Minor candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt linger below 0.1% due to limited name recognition and resources ahead of the March 2026 primary.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's 68.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate reflects trader consensus on his frontrunner status following his July 2024 campaign launch challenging three-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who trails at 29.5%. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and alignment with the GOP base have boosted his standing in recent internal polls showing him ahead by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Cornyn's fundraising edge and establishment support provide a path, but base skepticism over his bipartisan votes weighs on his odds. Minor candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt linger below 0.1% due to limited name recognition and resources ahead of the March 2026 primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"肯·帕克斯顿"，概率为 70%，其次是"分组项标题：约翰·康宁"，概率为 31%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 70¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 70%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者"已产生 $12.9 million 的总交易量（自Jul 10, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"肯·帕克斯顿"，概率为 70%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 70%。紧随其后的结果是"分组项标题：约翰·康宁"，概率为 31%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。