Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds (R) commands trader consensus at 92% for South Dakota's Senate race due to his third-term bid backed by President Trump's endorsement, overwhelming fundraising ($2.9 million cash on hand versus challenger Justin McNeal's $125,000), and the state's entrenched Republican trifecta with 94% of counties rated Solid Republican. Recent polls, like November 2025 Public Policy Polling showing Rounds at 52% over Democrat Julian Beaudion's 30%, underscore weak opposition ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Upsets remain possible via a damaging GOP primary outcome, late scandal, health event, or extraordinary national Democratic wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
92%
民主党
$1,316 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds (R) commands trader consensus at 92% for South Dakota's Senate race due to his third-term bid backed by President Trump's endorsement, overwhelming fundraising ($2.9 million cash on hand versus challenger Justin McNeal's $125,000), and the state's entrenched Republican trifecta with 94% of counties rated Solid Republican. Recent polls, like November 2025 Public Policy Polling showing Rounds at 52% over Democrat Julian Beaudion's 30%, underscore weak opposition ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Upsets remain possible via a damaging GOP primary outcome, late scandal, health event, or extraordinary national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$1,316结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds (R) commands trader consensus at 92% for South Dakota's Senate race due to his third-term bid backed by President Trump's endorsement, overwhelming fundraising ($2.9 million cash on hand versus challenger Justin McNeal's $125,000), and the state's entrenched Republican trifecta with 94% of counties rated Solid Republican. Recent polls, like November 2025 Public Policy Polling showing Rounds at 52% over Democrat Julian Beaudion's 30%, underscore weak opposition ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Upsets remain possible via a damaging GOP primary outcome, late scandal, health event, or extraordinary national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$1,316结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds (R) commands trader consensus at 92% for South Dakota's Senate race due to his third-term bid backed by President Trump's endorsement, overwhelming fundraising ($2.9 million cash on hand versus challenger Justin McNeal's $125,000), and the state's entrenched Republican trifecta with 94% of counties rated Solid Republican. Recent polls, like November 2025 Public Policy Polling showing Rounds at 52% over Democrat Julian Beaudion's 30%, underscore weak opposition ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Upsets remain possible via a damaging GOP primary outcome, late scandal, health event, or extraordinary national Democratic wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题