Ongoing litigation pits prediction market operator Kalshi against state regulators over whether sports event contracts—binary options on game outcomes—qualify as CFTC-regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or constitute illegal gambling subject to state laws. The March 9, 2026, Southern District of Ohio ruling in Kalshiex v. Schuler denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption and deeming the contracts non-swaps, prompting an immediate Sixth Circuit appeal (No. 26-3196). Conflicting district decisions in Tennessee, New Jersey, and Nevada deepen the divide, with Ninth Circuit rejecting Kalshi's stay request March 19. A circuit split could invite SCOTUS certiorari on jurisdictional authority, though bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 aims to prohibit such contracts outright.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$932,025 交易量
2026-12-31
7月31日
13%
12月31日
51%
$932,025 交易量
7月31日
$926,699 交易量
13%
12月31日
$5,325 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. Ongoing litigation pits prediction market operator Kalshi against state regulators over whether sports event contracts—binary options on game outcomes—qualify as CFTC-regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or constitute illegal gambling subject to state laws. The March 9, 2026, Southern District of Ohio ruling in Kalshiex v. Schuler denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption and deeming the contracts non-swaps, prompting an immediate Sixth Circuit appeal (No. 26-3196). Conflicting district decisions in Tennessee, New Jersey, and Nevada deepen the divide, with Ninth Circuit rejecting Kalshi's stay request March 19. A circuit split could invite SCOTUS certiorari on jurisdictional authority, though bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 aims to prohibit such contracts outright.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
交易量
$932,025结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. Ongoing litigation pits prediction market operator Kalshi against state regulators over whether sports event contracts—binary options on game outcomes—qualify as CFTC-regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or constitute illegal gambling subject to state laws. The March 9, 2026, Southern District of Ohio ruling in Kalshiex v. Schuler denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption and deeming the contracts non-swaps, prompting an immediate Sixth Circuit appeal (No. 26-3196). Conflicting district decisions in Tennessee, New Jersey, and Nevada deepen the divide, with Ninth Circuit rejecting Kalshi's stay request March 19. A circuit split could invite SCOTUS certiorari on jurisdictional authority, though bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 aims to prohibit such contracts outright.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
交易量
$932,025结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing litigation pits prediction market operator Kalshi against state regulators over whether sports event contracts—binary options on game outcomes—qualify as CFTC-regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or constitute illegal gambling subject to state laws. The March 9, 2026, Southern District of Ohio ruling in Kalshiex v. Schuler denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption and deeming the contracts non-swaps, prompting an immediate Sixth Circuit appeal (No. 26-3196). Conflicting district decisions in Tennessee, New Jersey, and Nevada deepen the divide, with Ninth Circuit rejecting Kalshi's stay request March 19. A circuit split could invite SCOTUS certiorari on jurisdictional authority, though bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 aims to prohibit such contracts outright.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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