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政治·主要

NY-15民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

NY-15民主党初选获胜者

里奇·托雷斯 85%

迈克尔·布莱克 14%

达劳尼·内莫林 2.3%

阿曼达·塞普蒂莫 <1%

Polymarket

$22,039 交易量

里奇·托雷斯 85%

迈克尔·布莱克 14%

达劳尼·内莫林 2.3%

阿曼达·塞普蒂莫 <1%

Polymarket

$22,039 交易量

里奇·托雷斯

$2,919 交易量

85%

迈克尔·布莱克

$1,883 交易量

14%

达劳尼·内莫林

$10,870 交易量

2%

阿曼达·塞普蒂莫

$6,367 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his fundraising dominance, local name recognition from prior Bronx City Council service, and a key endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 that bolsters establishment backing. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 13.5% as the primary challenger, leveraging past name familiarity from his 2020 loss to Torres while critiquing the incumbent's pro-Israel positions, though recent fundraising scrutiny over implied endorsements has not shifted odds. DSA-backed Dalourny Nemorin dropped out March 26 after low traction, and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo suspended her bid in January due to health issues, further consolidating support behind Torres in this safe Democratic Bronx district with no public polls available.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,039
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his fundraising dominance, local name recognition from prior Bronx City Council service, and a key endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 that bolsters establishment backing. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 13.5% as the primary challenger, leveraging past name familiarity from his 2020 loss to Torres while critiquing the incumbent's pro-Israel positions, though recent fundraising scrutiny over implied endorsements has not shifted odds. DSA-backed Dalourny Nemorin dropped out March 26 after low traction, and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo suspended her bid in January due to health issues, further consolidating support behind Torres in this safe Democratic Bronx district with no public polls available.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,039
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NY-15民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"里奇·托雷斯"，概率为 85%，其次是"迈克尔·布莱克"，概率为 14%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 85¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 85%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"NY-15民主党初选获胜者"已产生 $22K 的总交易量（自Nov 25, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"NY-15民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NY-15民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"里奇·托雷斯"，概率为 85%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 85%。紧随其后的结果是"迈克尔·布莱克"，概率为 14%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NY-15民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。