Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella as near-dead-even frontrunners at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities for the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting a fragmented field where recent municipal elections on March 15-22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities despite gains in Marseille, while limiting major city conquests and underscoring left-wing divisions. Philippe's centrist-right appeal as former prime minister gains traction amid ongoing parliamentary deadlock since 2024, contrasting Bardella's strong first-round polling leads (35-36% in latest Ifop and BFMTV surveys) but uncertain runoff performance. Key separators include candidate declarations, potential RN internal tensions sidelining Marine Le Pen, left coalitions behind figures like Glucksmann or Mélenchon, and economic catalysts before the April 2027 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于爱德华·菲利普 24%
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉 24%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 9%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$23,178,896 交易量
$23,178,896 交易量
爱德华·菲利普
24%
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉
24%
让-吕克·梅朗雄
9%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞
8%
多米尼克·德维尔潘
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
莎拉·克纳福
3%
大卫·利斯纳德
3%
加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
3%
塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%
热拉尔·达马南
1%
分组条目标题：让-卡斯泰
1%
埃里克·泽穆尔
1%
胡安·布兰科
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%
分组项标题：Marine Tondelier
<1%
尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%
洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%
瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%
伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%
分组项标题：曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%
泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%
奥利维耶·福尔
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%
弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
分组项标题：马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
爱德华·菲利普 24%
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉 24%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 9%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$23,178,896 交易量
$23,178,896 交易量
爱德华·菲利普
24%
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉
24%
让-吕克·梅朗雄
9%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞
8%
多米尼克·德维尔潘
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
莎拉·克纳福
3%
大卫·利斯纳德
3%
加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
3%
塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%
热拉尔·达马南
1%
分组条目标题：让-卡斯泰
1%
埃里克·泽穆尔
1%
胡安·布兰科
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%
分组项标题：Marine Tondelier
<1%
尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%
洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%
瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%
伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%
分组项标题：曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%
泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%
奥利维耶·福尔
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%
弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
分组项标题：马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella as near-dead-even frontrunners at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities for the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting a fragmented field where recent municipal elections on March 15-22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities despite gains in Marseille, while limiting major city conquests and underscoring left-wing divisions. Philippe's centrist-right appeal as former prime minister gains traction amid ongoing parliamentary deadlock since 2024, contrasting Bardella's strong first-round polling leads (35-36% in latest Ifop and BFMTV surveys) but uncertain runoff performance. Key separators include candidate declarations, potential RN internal tensions sidelining Marine Le Pen, left coalitions behind figures like Glucksmann or Mélenchon, and economic catalysts before the April 2027 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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