Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于军事行动持续至3月31日 95%
3月31日 1.7%
3月30日 1.7%
3月29日 1.4%
$2,550,720 交易量
$2,550,720 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
<1%
3月27日
<1%
3月28日
<1%
3月29日
1%
3月30日
2%
3月31日
2%
军事行动持续至3月31日
95%
军事行动持续至3月31日 95%
3月31日 1.7%
3月30日 1.7%
3月29日 1.4%
$2,550,720 交易量
$2,550,720 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
$326,382 交易量
<1%
3月27日
$330,972 交易量
<1%
3月28日
$307,560 交易量
<1%
3月29日
$266,296 交易量
1%
3月30日
$273,803 交易量
2%
3月31日
$360,235 交易量
2%
军事行动持续至3月31日
$552,989 交易量
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$2,550,720结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,550,720结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题