Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (89.5%), reflecting no verified de-escalation or ceasefire announcements amid ongoing regional tensions. The most recent major development remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, which Iran downplayed as limited damage without triggering immediate retaliation. Absent new diplomatic breakthroughs or withdrawal signals from Israel, U.S., or allied forces, traders price low odds on near-term endings (e.g., March 27 at 0.2%), viewing persistent proxy threats from Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis as sustaining escalation risks into late March and beyond. No scheduled summits or talks loom to shift dynamics soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于军事行动持续至3月31日 90%
3月31日 3.2%
3月30日 2.6%
3月29日 1.7%
$2,516,277 交易量
$2,516,277 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
<1%
3月27日
<1%
3月28日
1%
3月29日
2%
3月30日
3%
3月31日
3%
军事行动持续至3月31日
90%
军事行动持续至3月31日 90%
3月31日 3.2%
3月30日 2.6%
3月29日 1.7%
$2,516,277 交易量
$2,516,277 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
$326,235 交易量
<1%
3月27日
$319,638 交易量
<1%
3月28日
$304,444 交易量
1%
3月29日
$258,119 交易量
2%
3月30日
$273,134 交易量
3%
3月31日
$357,752 交易量
3%
军事行动持续至3月31日
$544,334 交易量
90%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (89.5%), reflecting no verified de-escalation or ceasefire announcements amid ongoing regional tensions. The most recent major development remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, which Iran downplayed as limited damage without triggering immediate retaliation. Absent new diplomatic breakthroughs or withdrawal signals from Israel, U.S., or allied forces, traders price low odds on near-term endings (e.g., March 27 at 0.2%), viewing persistent proxy threats from Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis as sustaining escalation risks into late March and beyond. No scheduled summits or talks loom to shift dynamics soon.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$2,516,277结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (89.5%), reflecting no verified de-escalation or ceasefire announcements amid ongoing regional tensions. The most recent major development remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, which Iran downplayed as limited damage without triggering immediate retaliation. Absent new diplomatic breakthroughs or withdrawal signals from Israel, U.S., or allied forces, traders price low odds on near-term endings (e.g., March 27 at 0.2%), viewing persistent proxy threats from Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis as sustaining escalation risks into late March and beyond. No scheduled summits or talks loom to shift dynamics soon.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,516,277结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (89.5%), reflecting no verified de-escalation or ceasefire announcements amid ongoing regional tensions. The most recent major development remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, which Iran downplayed as limited damage without triggering immediate retaliation. Absent new diplomatic breakthroughs or withdrawal signals from Israel, U.S., or allied forces, traders price low odds on near-term endings (e.g., March 27 at 0.2%), viewing persistent proxy threats from Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis as sustaining escalation risks into late March and beyond. No scheduled summits or talks loom to shift dynamics soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题