Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; no further escalatory strikes have occurred since, with both sides signaling restraint to avoid broader war. Ongoing proxy conflicts persist, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, but these do not constitute direct action against Iranian territory. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks in Gaza and Lebanon, alongside President-elect Trump's incoming administration's foreign policy signals, could influence de-escalation timelines, while Iran's Supreme Leader has warned of retaliation if provoked further. Traders weigh these dynamics against potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear program developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$144,890 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
10%
4月15日
31%
4月30日
55%
5月31日
53%
6月30日
77%
$144,890 交易量
March 26
$19,977 交易量
<1%
March 27
$7,581 交易量
<1%
March 28
$13,732 交易量
2%
March 29
$19,500 交易量
5%
March 30
$15,355 交易量
7%
March 31
$68,109 交易量
10%
4月15日
$486 交易量
31%
4月30日
$0 交易量
55%
5月31日
$148 交易量
53%
6月30日
$0 交易量
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; no further escalatory strikes have occurred since, with both sides signaling restraint to avoid broader war. Ongoing proxy conflicts persist, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, but these do not constitute direct action against Iranian territory. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks in Gaza and Lebanon, alongside President-elect Trump's incoming administration's foreign policy signals, could influence de-escalation timelines, while Iran's Supreme Leader has warned of retaliation if provoked further. Traders weigh these dynamics against potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear program developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$144,890结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; no further escalatory strikes have occurred since, with both sides signaling restraint to avoid broader war. Ongoing proxy conflicts persist, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, but these do not constitute direct action against Iranian territory. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks in Gaza and Lebanon, alongside President-elect Trump's incoming administration's foreign policy signals, could influence de-escalation timelines, while Iran's Supreme Leader has warned of retaliation if provoked further. Traders weigh these dynamics against potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear program developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$144,890结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; no further escalatory strikes have occurred since, with both sides signaling restraint to avoid broader war. Ongoing proxy conflicts persist, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, but these do not constitute direct action against Iranian territory. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks in Gaza and Lebanon, alongside President-elect Trump's incoming administration's foreign policy signals, could influence de-escalation timelines, while Iran's Supreme Leader has warned of retaliation if provoked further. Traders weigh these dynamics against potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear program developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题