Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race reflects the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his history of double-digit general election victories, including 65% in 2024 against minimal opposition. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with Polymarket's skin-in-the-game pricing amid weak Democratic primary challengers—Benjamin Ambrose, Andrew Ault, Jamie Hill, and Clyde Welford—with negligible fundraising compared to Moolenaar's $1.7 million cash on hand. No district-specific polls exist yet, but the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primary could introduce surprises; realistic challenges include a high-profile Democratic recruit, Moolenaar scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout in this reliably red constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$16,879 交易量
$16,879 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
$16,879 交易量
$16,879 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$11,292 交易量
92%
民主党
$5,587 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race reflects the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his history of double-digit general election victories, including 65% in 2024 against minimal opposition. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with Polymarket's skin-in-the-game pricing amid weak Democratic primary challengers—Benjamin Ambrose, Andrew Ault, Jamie Hill, and Clyde Welford—with negligible fundraising compared to Moolenaar's $1.7 million cash on hand. No district-specific polls exist yet, but the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primary could introduce surprises; realistic challenges include a high-profile Democratic recruit, Moolenaar scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout in this reliably red constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$16,879结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race reflects the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his history of double-digit general election victories, including 65% in 2024 against minimal opposition. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with Polymarket's skin-in-the-game pricing amid weak Democratic primary challengers—Benjamin Ambrose, Andrew Ault, Jamie Hill, and Clyde Welford—with negligible fundraising compared to Moolenaar's $1.7 million cash on hand. No district-specific polls exist yet, but the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primary could introduce surprises; realistic challenges include a high-profile Democratic recruit, Moolenaar scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout in this reliably red constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,879结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race reflects the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his history of double-digit general election victories, including 65% in 2024 against minimal opposition. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with Polymarket's skin-in-the-game pricing amid weak Democratic primary challengers—Benjamin Ambrose, Andrew Ault, Jamie Hill, and Clyde Welford—with negligible fundraising compared to Moolenaar's $1.7 million cash on hand. No district-specific polls exist yet, but the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primary could introduce surprises; realistic challenges include a high-profile Democratic recruit, Moolenaar scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout in this reliably red constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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