Preliminary estimates from reanalysis datasets like Copernicus ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface air temperatures remained elevated, clustering around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driving the 67% market-implied probability for this bin as traders weigh February's record 1.55ºC anomaly against ENSO-neutral conditions now favored through April–June by NOAA and IRI forecasts. Sustained warming trends, accelerated by recent marine heat and reduced aerosol cooling, support this positioning, though monthly variability from atmospheric patterns introduces uncertainty. Final resolution awaits the NOAA Global Climate Report's land-ocean index for March, expected soon, with potential revisions from ongoing data assimilation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.25–1.29ºC 66.3%
>1.29ºC 15.7%
1.20–1.24ºC 15%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.1%
$227,419 交易量
$227,419 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
15%
1.25–1.29ºC
66%
>1.29ºC
16%
1.25–1.29ºC 66.3%
>1.29ºC 15.7%
1.20–1.24ºC 15%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.1%
$227,419 交易量
$227,419 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
$29,527 交易量
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$33,347 交易量
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$53,620 交易量
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
$39,976 交易量
15%
1.25–1.29ºC
$26,651 交易量
66%
>1.29ºC
$44,298 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary estimates from reanalysis datasets like Copernicus ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface air temperatures remained elevated, clustering around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driving the 67% market-implied probability for this bin as traders weigh February's record 1.55ºC anomaly against ENSO-neutral conditions now favored through April–June by NOAA and IRI forecasts. Sustained warming trends, accelerated by recent marine heat and reduced aerosol cooling, support this positioning, though monthly variability from atmospheric patterns introduces uncertainty. Final resolution awaits the NOAA Global Climate Report's land-ocean index for March, expected soon, with potential revisions from ongoing data assimilation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$227,419结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary estimates from reanalysis datasets like Copernicus ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface air temperatures remained elevated, clustering around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driving the 67% market-implied probability for this bin as traders weigh February's record 1.55ºC anomaly against ENSO-neutral conditions now favored through April–June by NOAA and IRI forecasts. Sustained warming trends, accelerated by recent marine heat and reduced aerosol cooling, support this positioning, though monthly variability from atmospheric patterns introduces uncertainty. Final resolution awaits the NOAA Global Climate Report's land-ocean index for March, expected soon, with potential revisions from ongoing data assimilation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$227,419结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary estimates from reanalysis datasets like Copernicus ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface air temperatures remained elevated, clustering around 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driving the 67% market-implied probability for this bin as traders weigh February's record 1.55ºC anomaly against ENSO-neutral conditions now favored through April–June by NOAA and IRI forecasts. Sustained warming trends, accelerated by recent marine heat and reduced aerosol cooling, support this positioning, though monthly variability from atmospheric patterns introduces uncertainty. Final resolution awaits the NOAA Global Climate Report's land-ocean index for March, expected soon, with potential revisions from ongoing data assimilation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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