Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly exceeding 1.25ºC above pre-industrial levels (ERA5 baseline) at nearly 80%, with >1.29ºC leading at 46%, reflecting preliminary reanalysis data showing persistent warm anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere despite emerging La Niña conditions. Record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March, per Copernicus monitoring, alongside exceptional heatwaves in the U.S. Southwest and Bay Area—where anomalies shattered prior records—have bolstered expectations for a high-end outcome, countering equatorial Pacific cooling from negative subsurface temperature anomalies. This follows February 2026's fifth-warmest ranking globally (0.53ºC above 1991-2020), amid a ~0.35ºC/decade warming acceleration. Final Copernicus bulletin, due mid-April, could adjust figures via quality controls on ERA5 observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于>1.29ºC 46.3%
1.25–1.29ºC 34.1%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.15–1.19ºC 3.1%
$254,770 交易量
$254,770 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
34%
>1.29ºC
46%
>1.29ºC 46.3%
1.25–1.29ºC 34.1%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.15–1.19ºC 3.1%
$254,770 交易量
$254,770 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
$32,657 交易量
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$35,960 交易量
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$58,353 交易量
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
$48,182 交易量
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,342 交易量
34%
>1.29ºC
$50,277 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly exceeding 1.25ºC above pre-industrial levels (ERA5 baseline) at nearly 80%, with >1.29ºC leading at 46%, reflecting preliminary reanalysis data showing persistent warm anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere despite emerging La Niña conditions. Record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March, per Copernicus monitoring, alongside exceptional heatwaves in the U.S. Southwest and Bay Area—where anomalies shattered prior records—have bolstered expectations for a high-end outcome, countering equatorial Pacific cooling from negative subsurface temperature anomalies. This follows February 2026's fifth-warmest ranking globally (0.53ºC above 1991-2020), amid a ~0.35ºC/decade warming acceleration. Final Copernicus bulletin, due mid-April, could adjust figures via quality controls on ERA5 observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$254,770结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly exceeding 1.25ºC above pre-industrial levels (ERA5 baseline) at nearly 80%, with >1.29ºC leading at 46%, reflecting preliminary reanalysis data showing persistent warm anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere despite emerging La Niña conditions. Record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March, per Copernicus monitoring, alongside exceptional heatwaves in the U.S. Southwest and Bay Area—where anomalies shattered prior records—have bolstered expectations for a high-end outcome, countering equatorial Pacific cooling from negative subsurface temperature anomalies. This follows February 2026's fifth-warmest ranking globally (0.53ºC above 1991-2020), amid a ~0.35ºC/decade warming acceleration. Final Copernicus bulletin, due mid-April, could adjust figures via quality controls on ERA5 observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$254,770结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly exceeding 1.25ºC above pre-industrial levels (ERA5 baseline) at nearly 80%, with >1.29ºC leading at 46%, reflecting preliminary reanalysis data showing persistent warm anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere despite emerging La Niña conditions. Record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March, per Copernicus monitoring, alongside exceptional heatwaves in the U.S. Southwest and Bay Area—where anomalies shattered prior records—have bolstered expectations for a high-end outcome, countering equatorial Pacific cooling from negative subsurface temperature anomalies. This follows February 2026's fifth-warmest ranking globally (0.53ºC above 1991-2020), amid a ~0.35ºC/decade warming acceleration. Final Copernicus bulletin, due mid-April, could adjust figures via quality controls on ERA5 observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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