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政治·主要

KY-04共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

KY-04共和党初选获胜者

托马斯·马西 68%

艾德·加尔雷恩 31.9%

妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%

Polymarket

$231,302 交易量

托马斯·马西 68%

艾德·加尔雷恩 31.9%

妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%

Polymarket

$231,302 交易量

托马斯·马西

$161,492 交易量

68%

艾德·加尔雷恩

$69,810 交易量

32%

妮可·李·艾辛顿

$0 交易量

<1%

罗伯特·威尔斯二世

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% trader consensus to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his incumbency advantage and recent polling leads despite President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein. A Kaplan Strategies poll released April 11 showed Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% among likely GOP voters, with 14% undecided, while an earlier Quantus Insights survey echoed a single-digit edge. Massie's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.5 million from over 20,000 donors—including 401 from KY-04 totaling $99,000—signals robust grassroots support amid attack ads and Gallrein's reluctance to debate. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support, as the race hinges on turnout in this battleground primary testing anti-establishment vs. MAGA loyalties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$231,302
结束日期
2026-05-19
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% trader consensus to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his incumbency advantage and recent polling leads despite President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein. A Kaplan Strategies poll released April 11 showed Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% among likely GOP voters, with 14% undecided, while an earlier Quantus Insights survey echoed a single-digit edge. Massie's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.5 million from over 20,000 donors—including 401 from KY-04 totaling $99,000—signals robust grassroots support amid attack ads and Gallrein's reluctance to debate. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support, as the race hinges on turnout in this battleground primary testing anti-establishment vs. MAGA loyalties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$231,302
结束日期
2026-05-19
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"托马斯·马西"，概率为 68%，其次是"艾德·加尔雷恩"，概率为 32%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 68¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 68%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"已产生 $231.3K 的总交易量（自Dec 1, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"托马斯·马西"，概率为 68%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 68%。紧随其后的结果是"艾德·加尔雷恩"，概率为 32%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"KY-04共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。