Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 issuance of a narrow 60-day waiver—expiring mid-May—allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil amid Iran war-induced energy volatility and rising fuel costs. This temporary measure, justified under national defense provisions, echoes past crisis waivers but falls far short of permanent repeal, which demands Congressional action amid fierce opposition from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and national security hawks protecting U.S.-flagged fleet capacity. No active legislation advances full elimination, with reform advocates dominating discourse over outright abolition; key catalysts include waiver extension talks and Q2 energy data, though structural barriers sustain skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$47,622 交易量
$47,622 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$47,622 交易量
$47,622 交易量
2026-06-30
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 issuance of a narrow 60-day waiver—expiring mid-May—allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil amid Iran war-induced energy volatility and rising fuel costs. This temporary measure, justified under national defense provisions, echoes past crisis waivers but falls far short of permanent repeal, which demands Congressional action amid fierce opposition from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and national security hawks protecting U.S.-flagged fleet capacity. No active legislation advances full elimination, with reform advocates dominating discourse over outright abolition; key catalysts include waiver extension talks and Q2 energy data, though structural barriers sustain skepticism.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$47,622结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 issuance of a narrow 60-day waiver—expiring mid-May—allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil amid Iran war-induced energy volatility and rising fuel costs. This temporary measure, justified under national defense provisions, echoes past crisis waivers but falls far short of permanent repeal, which demands Congressional action amid fierce opposition from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and national security hawks protecting U.S.-flagged fleet capacity. No active legislation advances full elimination, with reform advocates dominating discourse over outright abolition; key catalysts include waiver extension talks and Q2 energy data, though structural barriers sustain skepticism.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$47,622结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 issuance of a narrow 60-day waiver—expiring mid-May—allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil amid Iran war-induced energy volatility and rising fuel costs. This temporary measure, justified under national defense provisions, echoes past crisis waivers but falls far short of permanent repeal, which demands Congressional action amid fierce opposition from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and national security hawks protecting U.S.-flagged fleet capacity. No active legislation advances full elimination, with reform advocates dominating discourse over outright abolition; key catalysts include waiver extension talks and Q2 energy data, though structural barriers sustain skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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