Trader consensus on Polymarket prices low odds for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by the market's deadline, driven by President-elect Trump's deliberate search for a successor to Jerome Powell whose term runs through May 2026. Recent developments include Warsh's reported interview with Trump's economic transition team last week, elevating the former Fed governor—known for advocating tighter monetary policy—as a top contender alongside figures like Scott Bessent. Legal hurdles persist, as Fed chairs serve four-year terms removable only "for cause," limiting abrupt replacement. Key upcoming catalysts: post-inauguration nomination by late January 2025, Senate Banking Committee hearings, and potential recess appointment risks amid GOP Senate control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$399,907 交易量
May 15, 2026
5月1日
12%
5月15日
50%
$399,907 交易量
5月1日
$271,793 交易量
12%
5月15日
$128,114 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
交易量
$399,907结束日期
May 15, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$399,907结束日期
May 15, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices low odds for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by the market's deadline, driven by President-elect Trump's deliberate search for a successor to Jerome Powell whose term runs through May 2026. Recent developments include Warsh's reported interview with Trump's economic transition team last week, elevating the former Fed governor—known for advocating tighter monetary policy—as a top contender alongside figures like Scott Bessent. Legal hurdles persist, as Fed chairs serve four-year terms removable only "for cause," limiting abrupt replacement. Key upcoming catalysts: post-inauguration nomination by late January 2025, Senate Banking Committee hearings, and potential recess appointment risks amid GOP Senate control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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