Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled short of a public agreement on surrendering Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, currently estimated by the IAEA at 121.5 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium as of late February. US demands in a March 25 fifteen-point proposal include immediate handover of approximately 450 kilograms of near-weapons-grade material, zero future enrichment on Iranian soil, and full IAEA verification, prompting President Trump's five-day pause on military action around March 23 amid claims of "productive" progress. Iran has signaled openness to zero stockpiling in February talks per Oman's foreign minister but rejected "unconditional surrender," with its FM mocking US overtures two days ago. Traders eye potential final diplomatic breakthroughs before the March 31 deadline, though IAEA inspection access remains limited.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
$31,555 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
11%
June 30
31%
December 31
35%
$31,555 交易量
April 30
$5,308 交易量
11%
June 30
$3,975 交易量
31%
December 31
$22,272 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled short of a public agreement on surrendering Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, currently estimated by the IAEA at 121.5 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium as of late February. US demands in a March 25 fifteen-point proposal include immediate handover of approximately 450 kilograms of near-weapons-grade material, zero future enrichment on Iranian soil, and full IAEA verification, prompting President Trump's five-day pause on military action around March 23 amid claims of "productive" progress. Iran has signaled openness to zero stockpiling in February talks per Oman's foreign minister but rejected "unconditional surrender," with its FM mocking US overtures two days ago. Traders eye potential final diplomatic breakthroughs before the March 31 deadline, though IAEA inspection access remains limited.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$31,555结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled short of a public agreement on surrendering Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, currently estimated by the IAEA at 121.5 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium as of late February. US demands in a March 25 fifteen-point proposal include immediate handover of approximately 450 kilograms of near-weapons-grade material, zero future enrichment on Iranian soil, and full IAEA verification, prompting President Trump's five-day pause on military action around March 23 amid claims of "productive" progress. Iran has signaled openness to zero stockpiling in February talks per Oman's foreign minister but rejected "unconditional surrender," with its FM mocking US overtures two days ago. Traders eye potential final diplomatic breakthroughs before the March 31 deadline, though IAEA inspection access remains limited.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$31,555结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled short of a public agreement on surrendering Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, currently estimated by the IAEA at 121.5 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium as of late February. US demands in a March 25 fifteen-point proposal include immediate handover of approximately 450 kilograms of near-weapons-grade material, zero future enrichment on Iranian soil, and full IAEA verification, prompting President Trump's five-day pause on military action around March 23 amid claims of "productive" progress. Iran has signaled openness to zero stockpiling in February talks per Oman's foreign minister but rejected "unconditional surrender," with its FM mocking US overtures two days ago. Traders eye potential final diplomatic breakthroughs before the March 31 deadline, though IAEA inspection access remains limited.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题