Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.4% implied probability) and one (26.5%) 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting an oil price shock from Middle East tensions that has eroded easing expectations despite the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of one cut to 3.4% by year-end. Sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient 4.4% unemployment, and rising Treasury yields underscore the hawkish tilt, with CME FedWatch showing 96% odds of no April change. Key differentiators include oil's persistence versus potential labor softening; watch March CPI on April 10 ahead of the late-April FOMC for resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0（0 基点） 31.4%
1 (25 个基点) 27%
2（50个基点） 19%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,392,839 交易量
$15,392,839 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
31%
1 (25 个基点)
27%
2（50个基点）
19%
3（75 个基点）
10%
4（100 基点）
6%
5（125个基点）
2%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
1%
8（200 个基点）
1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 31.4%
1 (25 个基点) 27%
2（50个基点） 19%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,392,839 交易量
$15,392,839 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$2,686,322 交易量
31%
1 (25 个基点)
$894,204 交易量
27%
2（50个基点）
$821,010 交易量
19%
3（75 个基点）
$792,979 交易量
10%
4（100 基点）
$807,584 交易量
6%
5（125个基点）
$859,822 交易量
2%
6（150个基点）
$1,875,591 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$793,309 交易量
1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,012,549 交易量
1%
9（225 个基点）
$841,075 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$1,267,792 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,122,195 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$1,618,517 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.4% implied probability) and one (26.5%) 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting an oil price shock from Middle East tensions that has eroded easing expectations despite the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of one cut to 3.4% by year-end. Sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient 4.4% unemployment, and rising Treasury yields underscore the hawkish tilt, with CME FedWatch showing 96% odds of no April change. Key differentiators include oil's persistence versus potential labor softening; watch March CPI on April 10 ahead of the late-April FOMC for resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$15,392,839结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.4% implied probability) and one (26.5%) 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting an oil price shock from Middle East tensions that has eroded easing expectations despite the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of one cut to 3.4% by year-end. Sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient 4.4% unemployment, and rising Treasury yields underscore the hawkish tilt, with CME FedWatch showing 96% odds of no April change. Key differentiators include oil's persistence versus potential labor softening; watch March CPI on April 10 ahead of the late-April FOMC for resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$15,392,839结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.4% implied probability) and one (26.5%) 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting an oil price shock from Middle East tensions that has eroded easing expectations despite the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of one cut to 3.4% by year-end. Sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient 4.4% unemployment, and rising Treasury yields underscore the hawkish tilt, with CME FedWatch showing 96% odds of no April change. Key differentiators include oil's persistence versus potential labor softening; watch March CPI on April 10 ahead of the late-April FOMC for resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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