Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.9%) and one (28.0%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, diverging slightly from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median of one cut amid higher inflation projections to 2.7% core PCE. Sticky price pressures persist despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and 4.4% unemployment, fueled by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices 50% and lifting 2-year Treasury yields near 3.70%. Futures imply a steady fed funds path around 3.6%, with April 28 FOMC (98% no-change odds) and upcoming CPI/PCE data as key swing factors that could solidify no-cut consensus or prompt easing if labor weakens further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0（0 基点） 31.9%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 19%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,205,757 交易量
$15,205,757 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
32%
1 (25 个基点)
28%
2（50个基点）
19%
3（75 个基点）
10%
4（100 基点）
6%
5（125个基点）
2%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
1%
8（200 个基点）
1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 31.9%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 19%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,205,757 交易量
$15,205,757 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$2,655,552 交易量
32%
1 (25 个基点)
$885,378 交易量
28%
2（50个基点）
$818,801 交易量
19%
3（75 个基点）
$792,261 交易量
10%
4（100 基点）
$801,502 交易量
6%
5（125个基点）
$847,549 交易量
2%
6（150个基点）
$1,861,469 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$781,263 交易量
1%
8（200 个基点）
$998,616 交易量
1%
9（225 个基点）
$808,577 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$1,253,684 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,106,926 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$1,594,301 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.9%) and one (28.0%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, diverging slightly from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median of one cut amid higher inflation projections to 2.7% core PCE. Sticky price pressures persist despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and 4.4% unemployment, fueled by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices 50% and lifting 2-year Treasury yields near 3.70%. Futures imply a steady fed funds path around 3.6%, with April 28 FOMC (98% no-change odds) and upcoming CPI/PCE data as key swing factors that could solidify no-cut consensus or prompt easing if labor weakens further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$15,205,757结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.9%) and one (28.0%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, diverging slightly from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median of one cut amid higher inflation projections to 2.7% core PCE. Sticky price pressures persist despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and 4.4% unemployment, fueled by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices 50% and lifting 2-year Treasury yields near 3.70%. Futures imply a steady fed funds path around 3.6%, with April 28 FOMC (98% no-change odds) and upcoming CPI/PCE data as key swing factors that could solidify no-cut consensus or prompt easing if labor weakens further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$15,205,757结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.9%) and one (28.0%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, diverging slightly from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median of one cut amid higher inflation projections to 2.7% core PCE. Sticky price pressures persist despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and 4.4% unemployment, fueled by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices 50% and lifting 2-year Treasury yields near 3.70%. Futures imply a steady fed funds path around 3.6%, with April 28 FOMC (98% no-change odds) and upcoming CPI/PCE data as key swing factors that could solidify no-cut consensus or prompt easing if labor weakens further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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