Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, trader consensus prices three countries at 57% as the likeliest for Israeli strikes in April, reflecting sustained airstrikes on Iran—including recent March 26-27 hits on nuclear facilities and Tehran—and ground operations plus over 250 Hezbollah-targeted attacks in Lebanon since mid-March. Routine actions against Iranian proxies in Syria bolster this count, while Yemen's first missile barrage at Israel yesterday raises ≥4 odds to 46.5% amid uncertain ceasefire talks and potential Iraq expansions. Lower probabilities for two or fewer underscore de-escalation barriers in active multi-front hostilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3 57%
≥4 47%
2 30%
≤1 8%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
8%
2
30%
3
57%
≥4
47%
3 57%
≥4 47%
2 30%
≤1 8%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$36 交易量
8%
2
$1 交易量
30%
3
$128 交易量
57%
≥4
$0 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, trader consensus prices three countries at 57% as the likeliest for Israeli strikes in April, reflecting sustained airstrikes on Iran—including recent March 26-27 hits on nuclear facilities and Tehran—and ground operations plus over 250 Hezbollah-targeted attacks in Lebanon since mid-March. Routine actions against Iranian proxies in Syria bolster this count, while Yemen's first missile barrage at Israel yesterday raises ≥4 odds to 46.5% amid uncertain ceasefire talks and potential Iraq expansions. Lower probabilities for two or fewer underscore de-escalation barriers in active multi-front hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$165结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, trader consensus prices three countries at 57% as the likeliest for Israeli strikes in April, reflecting sustained airstrikes on Iran—including recent March 26-27 hits on nuclear facilities and Tehran—and ground operations plus over 250 Hezbollah-targeted attacks in Lebanon since mid-March. Routine actions against Iranian proxies in Syria bolster this count, while Yemen's first missile barrage at Israel yesterday raises ≥4 odds to 46.5% amid uncertain ceasefire talks and potential Iraq expansions. Lower probabilities for two or fewer underscore de-escalation barriers in active multi-front hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$165结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, trader consensus prices three countries at 57% as the likeliest for Israeli strikes in April, reflecting sustained airstrikes on Iran—including recent March 26-27 hits on nuclear facilities and Tehran—and ground operations plus over 250 Hezbollah-targeted attacks in Lebanon since mid-March. Routine actions against Iranian proxies in Syria bolster this count, while Yemen's first missile barrage at Israel yesterday raises ≥4 odds to 46.5% amid uncertain ceasefire talks and potential Iraq expansions. Lower probabilities for two or fewer underscore de-escalation barriers in active multi-front hostilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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