Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including Tehran targets, and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—escalating since the February 28 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei—drive trader consensus toward three countries as the baseline for April strikes, likely encompassing Iran, Lebanon, and Iraqi militia sites hit earlier this month. The tight race with ≥4 at 47.5% reflects uncertainty over Houthi missile attacks from Yemen prompting retaliation and potential Syrian border actions, amid ceasefire talks that could cap expansion. Recent Lebanese ground pushes and Iranian missile barrages heighten risks of de-escalation or broader proxy involvement, with no confirmed Gaza strikes in the past 30 days amid earlier ceasefires.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3 57%
≥4 48%
2 37%
≤1 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
9%
2
37%
3
57%
≥4
48%
3 57%
≥4 48%
2 37%
≤1 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$36 交易量
9%
2
$1 交易量
37%
3
$128 交易量
57%
≥4
$0 交易量
48%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including Tehran targets, and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—escalating since the February 28 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei—drive trader consensus toward three countries as the baseline for April strikes, likely encompassing Iran, Lebanon, and Iraqi militia sites hit earlier this month. The tight race with ≥4 at 47.5% reflects uncertainty over Houthi missile attacks from Yemen prompting retaliation and potential Syrian border actions, amid ceasefire talks that could cap expansion. Recent Lebanese ground pushes and Iranian missile barrages heighten risks of de-escalation or broader proxy involvement, with no confirmed Gaza strikes in the past 30 days amid earlier ceasefires.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$165结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including Tehran targets, and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—escalating since the February 28 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei—drive trader consensus toward three countries as the baseline for April strikes, likely encompassing Iran, Lebanon, and Iraqi militia sites hit earlier this month. The tight race with ≥4 at 47.5% reflects uncertainty over Houthi missile attacks from Yemen prompting retaliation and potential Syrian border actions, amid ceasefire talks that could cap expansion. Recent Lebanese ground pushes and Iranian missile barrages heighten risks of de-escalation or broader proxy involvement, with no confirmed Gaza strikes in the past 30 days amid earlier ceasefires.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$165结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including Tehran targets, and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—escalating since the February 28 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei—drive trader consensus toward three countries as the baseline for April strikes, likely encompassing Iran, Lebanon, and Iraqi militia sites hit earlier this month. The tight race with ≥4 at 47.5% reflects uncertainty over Houthi missile attacks from Yemen prompting retaliation and potential Syrian border actions, amid ceasefire talks that could cap expansion. Recent Lebanese ground pushes and Iranian missile barrages heighten risks of de-escalation or broader proxy involvement, with no confirmed Gaza strikes in the past 30 days amid earlier ceasefires.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题