The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
$153,001 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
4.5%
85%
4.6%
72%
4.8%
48%
5.0%
28%
5.2%
21%
5.5%
18%
5.7%
18%
6.0%
16%
$153,001 交易量
4.5%
$10,967 交易量
85%
4.6%
$31,397 交易量
72%
4.8%
$43,173 交易量
48%
5.0%
$27,932 交易量
28%
5.2%
$7,487 交易量
21%
5.5%
$1,062 交易量
18%
5.7%
$2,357 交易量
18%
6.0%
$1,659 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$153,001结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$153,001结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题