Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 5, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 13–23°C+ outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles—Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance suggesting partly cloudy conditions with a 40% precipitation chance and highs near 18–20°C similar to April 3–4 projections (17–18.5°C), while GFS leans warmer and ECMWF cooler amid spring 2026's expected large fluctuations from shifting jet stream patterns and frontal systems. Differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for cooler outcomes versus potential high-pressure ridging enabling 22°C+ spikes, against historical early-April averages of 17°C at Haneda Airport station. Watch JMA and ECMWF updates over the next 48 hours for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4月5日东京气温最高？
4月5日东京气温最高？
21°C 29%
23°C或更高 26%
20°C 20%
19°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
13°C或以下
5%
14°C
4%
15°C
8%
16°C
8%
17°C
8%
18°C
11%
19°C
16%
20°C
20%
21°C
29%
22°C
15%
23°C或更高
26%
21°C 29%
23°C或更高 26%
20°C 20%
19°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
13°C或以下
$22 交易量
5%
14°C
$0 交易量
4%
15°C
$0 交易量
8%
16°C
$0 交易量
8%
17°C
$0 交易量
8%
18°C
$0 交易量
11%
19°C
$0 交易量
16%
20°C
$0 交易量
20%
21°C
$0 交易量
29%
22°C
$0 交易量
15%
23°C或更高
$0 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 5, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 13–23°C+ outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles—Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance suggesting partly cloudy conditions with a 40% precipitation chance and highs near 18–20°C similar to April 3–4 projections (17–18.5°C), while GFS leans warmer and ECMWF cooler amid spring 2026's expected large fluctuations from shifting jet stream patterns and frontal systems. Differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for cooler outcomes versus potential high-pressure ridging enabling 22°C+ spikes, against historical early-April averages of 17°C at Haneda Airport station. Watch JMA and ECMWF updates over the next 48 hours for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 5, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 13–23°C+ outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles—Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance suggesting partly cloudy conditions with a 40% precipitation chance and highs near 18–20°C similar to April 3–4 projections (17–18.5°C), while GFS leans warmer and ECMWF cooler amid spring 2026's expected large fluctuations from shifting jet stream patterns and frontal systems. Differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for cooler outcomes versus potential high-pressure ridging enabling 22°C+ spikes, against historical early-April averages of 17°C at Haneda Airport station. Watch JMA and ECMWF updates over the next 48 hours for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 5, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 13–23°C+ outcomes driven by divergent global model ensembles—Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance suggesting partly cloudy conditions with a 40% precipitation chance and highs near 18–20°C similar to April 3–4 projections (17–18.5°C), while GFS leans warmer and ECMWF cooler amid spring 2026's expected large fluctuations from shifting jet stream patterns and frontal systems. Differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for cooler outcomes versus potential high-pressure ridging enabling 22°C+ spikes, against historical early-April averages of 17°C at Haneda Airport station. Watch JMA and ECMWF updates over the next 48 hours for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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